President Bush has a problem. Disasters are generally followed
by a bounce in approval for the executive who takes charge. But
after Hurricane Katrina there has been no such person, and
post-Katrina polling has shown growing frustration with the
embarrassing and tragic failures on the local, state, and federal
levels. Bush himself has not fared particularly well in the most
recent polls on his handling of the disaster:
Thirty-eight percent approved and 58% disapproved in a CBS News poll, 38% approved and 52% disapproved
in a Pew
Research Center poll, and 41% approved and 55% disapproved in
the latest SurveyUSA poll, while 35% called Bush’s response
to the hurricane “great” or “good,” 21% called it “neither good nor
bad,” and 42% called it “bad” or “terrible” in the Gallup poll, and
38% called it “excellent” or “good,” 17% called it “fair” and 43%
called it “poor” in the Zogby poll.
These numbers are only a little worse than Bush’s overall job
approval ratings — 42% according to CBS, 40% according to Pew, 40%
according to Zogby (that’s the “excellent”/”good” total). Only
Rasmussen’s tracking poll, which uses a
weighting method that has generally made it kinder to the president
than other outfits, shows him breaking into the mid-forties. While
it’s worth noting that Rasmussen did very
well at predicting election results in 2004, the general
impression given across several polls that Bush is low on political
capital can’t be discounted, especially in light of the upcoming
judicial battles.
John Roberts is still likely to be confirmed, perhaps even more
so now that he is for all intents replacing his mentor William
Rehnquist rather than Sandra Day O’Connor. But the next nominee
could face trouble, especially if he or she is a strong
conservative. Erick Erickson of RedState.org reports that a source of his says that “we are unsure
if we could keep 51 of our own in the Senate” were conservative
Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Edith Jones nominated. “We’re
doing the math and we’re pretty sure, but not fully sure.”
They’ll be less sure if Senators start to conclude, with the
2006 election upcoming, that cooperating with the Bush
Administration is politically perilous. Seven GOP senators signed
onto the compromise in May promising not to support stopping
judicial filibusters as long as their Democratic counterparts
refrain from filibustering nominees except under “extraordinary
circumstances.” Three of them are up for reelection, and two —
Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Mike DeWine of Ohio — appear
likely to face credible challengers. DeWine is particularly
important as one of three compromisers (along with John McCain and
Lindsey Graham) who has expressed an explicit willingness to
support a rule change if the compromise breaks.
Given that, it’s past due to show some leadership on the Katrina
clean-up. Slate’s John Dickerson makes the terrible
suggestion that Bush “schedule a press conference, or, better
yet, a town hall meeting with residents.” This would be a major
blunder; neither forum would play to the President’s strengths.
Instead, he should do what he’s best at, and give a primetime
speech before an audience with plenty of specifics on how the
rescue operation has gone, what went wrong, and how problems are
being fixed.
There’s also the matter of one Michael Brown. Unless
conservatives like Michelle Malkin are suddenly to be written off as
carping Bush-haters, calls for the hapless FEMA head to be fired
can’t be written off. National Review’s Kate O’Beirne
hears that the President has been told that “if Brown stays
around, calls for his head from Repub[l]icans will grow.” If
there’s anything Bush hates, it’s punishing people who are loyal to
him. But he ought to bite the bullet and tactfully announce that
while we thank Brown for his service, he’s being replaced by
someone with the expertise to execute needed reforms. It can be
done without being cruel. But it must be done.
