The American Spectator

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Moreover, recruiting strong candidates will be difficult for Democrats. The first question a prospective candidate asks when approached to run by the party bigs is, "How much money will you spend on this race if I do?" The answer, if Democrats are to be honest, will be, "not much."

According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission through the month of July, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has raised a total of $24,070,752.10 so far this year. The National Republican Congressional Committee has raised $39,984,494.62. The DCCC has only $8,544,288.27 cash on hand compared to the NRCC's $16,377, 230.66. The DCCC has $3,666,666.67 in outstanding debts. The NRCC has no debt.

Put simply, Democrats have fewer dollars to defend more seats, which limits their ability to create a greater number of competitive races by recruiting rock star candidates.

SO, WHAT ABOUT A tidal wave? A great many Democrats have convinced themselves that the "Republican corruption" leitmotif will carry them into power.

Eh.

That's a tough sell, particularly when 19 of the 43 members of Congress that have acknowledged doing what Majority Leader Tom DeLay is being witch-hunted for -- allowing lobbyists to pay for junket travel -- are themselves Democrats.

Harping on corruption may also dampen recruitment. How many Democrats -- no matter how qualified -- with potential skeletons in their closets will choose to run in a year when their own party leaders will make moral piety the threshold for serving in Congress?

And as one high-level GOP communications operative said to me, "In 1998 we spent over $20 million in districts all across the country reminding everyone about Bill Clinton and the blue dress. We lost seats. Why are voters going to turn Republicans out of power because some Congressman they think they might have heard of may have done something that a bunch of other Congressmen did, too?"

The bottom line is, the Democrats need to win all three Republican-held "toss up" seats and maintain all five of theirs, plus hold all their "Lean Democrat" seats and win all but three of the "Lean Republican" seats to gain a majority.

At a press conference in the heat of the 2004 campaign, Nancy Pelosi confidently averred she would be Speaker of the House during the next session of Congress. Members of the press corps contained their laughter, though they might have had a good chuckle over drinks later on. If Pelosi were to make the same statement today, their drinks would come pouring out their noses.

topics:
Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Bill Clinton, Iraq