The American Spectator

Campaign Crawlers

(Page 4 of 5)

p> Florida br> This most famous of swing states is easily the most expensive Senate seat in play in 2006. Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson won the seat in 2000 with only 51% of the vote. His Republican challenger will mount a well-funded and aggressive challenge complete with round-the-clock national attention in this state where President Bush increased his vote share from 2000 to 2004. Again, Democrats will have to dedicate massive amounts of limited resources to defend this seat, whereas Republicans get to play offense. /p> p> Pennsylvania br> Republican Sen. Rick Santorum is the most vulnerable incumbent in America. His polling numbers have sagged all year long and he will face a well-funded challenge from the likable Democratic State Treasurer Bobby Casey. In this case, it is the Republicans who will have to dedicate extraordinary amounts of money to defend a seat. But here is where the strategy of fielding challengers in other expensive states pays off; with their backs against the wall in pricy Washington state, West Virginia, and Florida, Democrats will have less money to play with in trying to defeating Santorum. /p> p> Missouri br> Democrats may or may not field a reputable challenger against Republican Sen. Jim Talent. But the fact is, Talent won in 2002 with only 50% of the vote. Meanwhile, President Bush received 53% of the vote in 2004. /p> p> Rhode Island br> There are a great many things that could go wrong for Republicans here. President Bush received only 39% of the vote in 2004. Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee may face a challenge in the primary from Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. The Democrats could field a top flight candidate. Or Sen. Chafee could become a Democrat tomorrow. Regardless, this will be a difficult seat for Republicans to hold in 2006.

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