The first in a series of reports on the MoveOn party's electoral conundrums. Today: The Senate in 2006.
(Page 3 of 5)
Democrat Sen. Maria Cantwell won her seat in 2000 by a scant 2,200
votes after outspending the incumbent Slade Gorton two-to-one.
President Bush improved his vote share in Washington State only
marginally between 2000 and 2004, from 45% to 46%. But Seattle is
an extremely expensive media market and Republicans will make a
strategic decision to run hard here to force Democrats to spend
heavy resources defending another seat.
President George W. Bush won North Dakota with a hearty 63% of the
vote in 2004. Nonetheless, Democrat Sen. Kent Conrad won reelection
in 2000 with 62%. But Republican success in sister enigma South
Dakota may finally help the GOP generate a formula for success in
this culturally conservative but heavily D.C.-dependent part of the
country. If popular Republican Governor John Hoeven decides to
enter the race, expect the intensity here to approach the
Thune-Daschle race of last year. Besides, this is an inexpensive
place for Republicans to invest resources to try to pick up a
President Bush received 66% of the vote in Nebraska last year.
Meanwhile, Democrat Senator Ben Nelson received only 51% of the
vote in 2000 while outspending his Republican opponent two-to-one.
Nebraska is also a fairly inexpensive place for Republicans to play
Is Sen. Robert Byrd (D-KKK) really vulnerable? Isn’t it pretty to
think so? President Bush received 56% of the vote in West Virginia
in 2004 and this state is slowly trending Republican. If Rep.
Shelley Moore Capito runs against Byrd, Republicans will have a
strong challenger to back. Full market penetration in West Virginia
requires advertising in the Washington, D.C. market, which means
forcing Democrats to spend real money to defend another