Democrats in the Senate were resigned to the news Wednesday that
Minnesota Sen. Mark Dayton had decided not to run
for re-election. Word coming out of Dayton’s office in Washington
and Minnesota was that his early polling numbers for re-election —
including favorables against a generic Republican and Independent
— as well as approval numbers were poor.
A Democratic National Committee staffer disputed the poor
numbers, saying that no politician worth his salt would be treating
numbers this early so seriously. “Taking into account survey
exhaustion, Democratic disenchantment with the national party, and
the quirkiness of Minnesota, I don’t see how polling numbers this
early could be the reason for scaring Dayton off. If that’s the
reason, then good riddance.”
To be sure, Dayton scares easily — take his run from Washington
in the days prior to the November elections, for example. And in a
Democratic caucus light on serious, younger talent, he was
considered a lightweight and too lazy for his own good. But despite
being on a Republican list of beatable Democratic incumbents, there
was hope in some quarters of the Democratic Party that Dayton would
make a fight of it.
However, according to a senior Senate Democratic source, Dayton
had a conversation with Senate minority leader Harry
Reid within the past week in which Reid made it clear that
if rumors of Dayton’s disenchantment with campaigning and
fundraising and Washington were true, he should make the decision
now for the good of the party. Dayton staffers have denied that a
conversation with Reid had anything to do with the decision.
DAYTON’S DEPARTURE, SIMILARLY, is a slap at the prevailing
Democratic model of finding deep pocketed self-financers to run for
office. Dayton spent $12 million of his own money to run and win in
2000, similar to Sen. Jon Corzine, who could
hardly wait to jump out of the Senate and back into the New Jersey
political swamplands.
Now there is a mixture of relief that the party can find a
strong replacement with time to clear the field. First on the wish
list, apparently, is former Minnesota Viking Purple People Eater
Alan Page, currently an elected member of the
Minnesota Supreme Court. Page has been courted by the
Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) in the past, and it isn’t clear
if he is interested.
Two other names generating the most heat are state Attorney
General Mike Hatch, and third-term Rep.
Betty McCollum, a liberal from the St. Paul area.
McCollum has been increasingly identified by Democrats — at least
in the House — as a potential rising star. If Hatch were to rule
out a run completely, some Democrats believe McCollum would have
the party and fundraising support to make a play.
But the DFL decisions really will be made on what the
Republicans decide to do. The GOP was clearly cheered by the Dayton
news. Already, the party believes it has lined up a strong
candidate to challenge North Dakota Democrat Sen. Kent
Conrad (sitting Gov. John
Hoeven), and it expects to line up strong recruits to
challenge Sens. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and
Bill Nelson of Florida.
“If you count what we might be able to do in Minnesota, 2006
gives four highly competitive possible pickups,” says a Senate GOP
leadership staffer. “At the very least, we’re looking at holding
the current majority level, if not a slight gain.”
That’s because right now, Republicans expect they’ll face three
tough races: Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island,
Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and possibly
Sen. Bill Frist should he decide to retire.
Republicans in the Senate don’t anticipate any surprise retirements
in this election cycle.
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE DAYTON announcement, the name on many
Republicans’ lips was Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.
The popular first-term Republican is up for re-election in 2006,
and has been identified by cultural conservatives as a possible
dark horse presidential candidate in 2008. “But if he really wants
to be in the presidential hunt, he isn’t going to give up the
governorship at this stage of the game,” says a Republican National
Committee staffer. “We’re going to make a run at him, but we expect
that he is going to want to run for re-election. If you buy into
the strategy that you can’t win the presidency from the Senate, you
don’t give up a good, fairly safe governorship for that,
particularly in a battleground state like Minnesota.”
A Pawlenty run, some believe, would scare off some DFL
challengers, including Mike Hatch, who in turn might run for the
open gubernatorial slot. Pawlenty would certainly fit the profile
for the White House in recruiting candidates for Senate seats:
seasoned politico, with good fundraising roots and current,
statewide appeal.
Other Republicans mentioned are the man who lost to Dayton in
2000, Rod Grams, who was telling local media
outlets that he was already in the race. Perhaps the favorite among
serious Republicans is Rep. Mark Kennedy, a solid
conservative from the St. Cloud area, who backed the Bush tax cuts,
but worked to repeal the Bush steel tariffs.
In the end, Republicans anticipate having a cleaner, more
unified search and clearing of the field than their DFL
counterparts. “The DFL is still coming to grips with its
Wellstone/Humphrey past,” says the RNC staffer. “Do they go with
the political ‘progressive’ or do they try find some middle ground?
Either way, I think the GOP is in better shape.”
