Some Americans are surprised to see that Donald Rumsfeld has
kept his job in the face of mounting U.S. casualties in Iraq. Some
have gone so far as to demand his resignation. The latest critic to
publicly call for the defense secretary’s departure is William
Kristol, editor of the Weekly Standard.
Given his repeated faulty prognostications about Iraq, one
wonders why anyone should take these urgings seriously. The Iraq
debacle that Kristol championed made what should have been an easy
victory this November into a bruising electoral battle.
Despite the fact that advocates of military action against Iraq
have been proved wrong repeatedly — from the assertion that Iraq
was in possession of weapons of mass destruction to the belief that
the Iraqi people would welcome us as liberators and tolerate a
lengthy occupation of their country — they exhibit not a hint of
doubt. Rather than admit that their theories are broken,
neoconservatives have turned instead to criticizing the way that
Rumsfeld has gone about implementing their grand plans.
These criticisms are not new. Soon after the collapse of Iraqi
forces in April 2003, and within days of the president’s
declaration of victory on the deck of the Abraham Lincoln,
Rumsfeld intimated that the number of U.S. troops in Iraq would be
cut in half by the end of the year.
The very suggestion appalled neoconservatives who agitate for a
long-term military presence in the region. When Rumsfeld said the
Pentagon was not planning to keep permanent bases in Iraq, Max Boot
of the Council on Foreign Relations shot back, “If they’re not,
they should be.” In the pages of USA Today Boot advised
readers, “get used to U.S. troops being deployed [in Iraq] for
years, possibly decades, to come.”
Tom Donnelly of the American Enterprise Institute agreed,
predicting that “the protection of the embryonic Iraqi democracy”
would be a “duty that will likely extend for decades.” Writing in
the pages of the Weekly Standard, Donnelly called for a
“quasi-permanent American garrison in Iraq” to protect American
interests there. Donnelly elaborated in an interview with the
Washington Post, saying “we have a political commitment
and a huge amount of chips bet on whether political reconstruction
in Iraq is going to work.”
That analogy is appropriate. Like a compulsive gambler desperate
to recover his losses, neoconservative talking heads stare at the
setbacks in Iraq and conclude not that theirs was a bad bet, but
rather that more should be wagered.
Such advice reveals the extent to which the talking heads are
out of step with average Americans, a majority of whom now express
doubts about having waged war in the first place. With the cost of
operations in Iraq totaling well over $200 billion since the
invasion in March 2003, Kristol’s chief complaint is that we should
have spent much more.
Such recommendations are very un-conservative. Not surprisingly,
those in favor of a long-term Iraqi occupation are finding
themselves at odds with an increasingly vocal conservative chorus
anxious for a change of course in Iraq, one that does not include
more U.S. troops. Syndicated columnist Robert Novak predicted in
September that President Bush would seek a substantial reduction in
the number of troops in Iraq early in his second term. Novak and
other conservative war skeptics have been joined by such writers as
William F. Buckley, Jr., George Will, and Tucker Carlson. These
journalists either refrained from openly criticizing the decision
to go to war or supported the toppling of Saddam but subsequently
expressed grave concerns about a long-term U.S. commitment to
reshape Iraqi society. They are skeptical of plans to remake the
Greater Middle East.
Rumsfeld’s greatest strategic misjudgment was his belief that a
long-term occupation of Iraq would not be necessary following the
removal of Saddam Hussein. Had he accounted for the fact that such
an investment of resources would be required, Rumsfeld might not
have been so enthusiastic a supporter of a preventive war against a
country that posed no imminent threat to the United States.
But while his political antenna seem to have malfunctioned during a
brief interval in late 2002 and early 2003, Rumsfeld’s instincts
seem eminently sound, based as they are on a more realistic
assessment of the limits of American power. He has never embraced a
long-term occupation of Iraq, and he has consistently, even
stubbornly, insisted that the road to peace and prosperity will be
paved by the Iraqi people. For this, he has faced repeated calls
for his resignation.
President Bush has resisted pressure to send many more troops
into the Iraqi theater. Rumsfeld’s opposition to plans to expand
the size and scope of the U.S. occupation has helped to stiffen the
president’s resolve.
It may be too soon to expect an end to the occupation. But if
Rumsfeld is replaced by someone with more expansive plans for Iraq,
we can expect an escalation of the conflict there that will surely
result in more lives lost, and billions more dollars
squandered.
