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A DARKER UKRAINE br> Re: Doug Bandow's Between West and East : /p>

It is obvious that Doug Bandow does not live in Ukraine and is watching events from afar. I, on the other hand, have lived here for seven years and have been married to a Ukrainian woman for five of those years. My wife has informed me that if Yanukovych steals this election, she wants me to return to America with our son, while she joins the revolution to fight for Ukraine's freedom. This is not some threat from a nationalist fighter, but just a regular doctor trying to survive in Kyiv. Ukrainian citizens have had enough of this Mafia-run country and the possibility of civil war is real, although unlikely. Ukrainians are the second-longest ethnic group in history to live under occupation (800 years -- their recent 10 years of independence being the longest time of freedom since Genghis Khan's grandson decimated Central Europe) and still survive as a people-group. They have a history of just accepting their fate without much of a fight. But this time might be different -- Western Ukraine has only been subjugated to Russia for the last 60 years under the Soviet Union -- and they are not about to allow it to happen again.

And this election is about freedom. Some have estimated that about 16 families control 80% of the resources of Ukraine. These families can not allow Yushchenko to come to power and jeopardize their control of this country. Anyone of significance who has opposed these oligarchs has disappeared, been killed, or have met with an "accidental" and fatal car accident. I can not count how many of these have occurred in the seven years I have lived here. Even Yushchenko himself was poisoned last month and arrived in Austria for medical attention within hours of losing his life. Just prior to this he was dining with the director of the SBU (the successor to the KGB).

When my wife went to vote in the first round, she found her name not on the list of registered voters (along with many of our neighbors). As they searched the list for her name, she recognized several names that have been dead for years. You can bet that after the polls closed and the observers went home, those dead citizens cast their vote for Yanukovych. What proof do we have? The legitimate exit poll showed Yushchenko ahead by 10-20%, not the mere 1-2% officially recorded. Where did all these extra votes come from?

The region of Kherson is in the heart of Yanukovych territory (East and South-East Ukraine). In order to show a solidarity of the East for Yanukovych, it was necessary to ensure this region voted in his camp. The problem was that all the polling data before the election was showing Yushchenko in the lead. The day of the election, thugs appeared throughout the countryside to prevent citizens from casting their votes. And in the capital of Kherson, some polling stations were not open at all. Surprise -- Kherson region voted for Yanukovych.

The miners in the Donetsk region, another area critical for Yanukovych, reported that they were required to work a double-shift on election day and thus were prevented to vote (and election day was on a Sunday). Their bosses required them to give them written permission to cast their vote for them. Donetsk is the region where Yanukovych is the Mafia-boss. It was in this region that he served several prison terms for crimes he committed as he climbed the Mafia ladder -- including convictions for assault and embezzlement. He would have had a third sentence for gang rape had he not had the money to buy his freedom from that crime.

And this is the heart of the matter in Ukraine. Kuchma, one of the leaders of the Dnipropetrovsk Mafia (that dates back to Khrushchev who was once the boss there), could no longer retain power. The constitution prevented him from running again, and his last minute attempt to change the constitution transferring presidential powers to the prime minister (which he would easily be elected to thus prolonging his power) failed. His only choice was to make a deal with the Donetsk gang.

President Clinton turned his eyes from these oligarchs in exchange for their movement towards the West. President Bush, who is a man of much higher morals, could not ignore their criminal regime. Because of this, Kuchma began to drag Ukraine back towards the Russian sphere which would assure his team staying in power. But Russia did not give them this assurance for free. Much of Ukraine has been sold to Putin's team in exchange for their protection. Yushchenko has pledged that all those deals will be invalidated when he becomes president. Russia can not allow this. Chernomyrdin, Russian ambassador to Ukraine, was caught saying off-the-record, "We will not allow Yushchenko to become president." And Russian president Putin was here the day of the election to insure his side would win.

Kuchma, Yanukovych, and Putin know that there could be civil war over this. That is why the October parade was postponed for weeks till the day before the elections to allow for an excuse to bring the largest contingent of military force in over 60 years into the capital. Yanukovych threatened that he would not allow what happened in Georgia to happen in Ukraine (there the people overthrew the regime that stole the elections), and his threats were backed by this military show and the presence of Putin to warn against any opposition to his rule.

Bandow states that "whatever the election result, Washington will remain influential in Ukraine." This is not true. If Yushchenko wins, then Washington will have influence finally in Ukraine. If Yanukovych wins, then Ukraine will continue to use Washington to keep their regime in power.

p>For obvious reasons, if you decide to print this reply, please keep it anonymous. It is not as calm a country as Bandow makes it out to be.

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