Let me begin by saying this is the strangest election I can
recall. I’ve been following presidential elections closely since I
was ten (yes, I know, scary) and I can’t recall one in which a host
of states became battleground territory late in the election. But
that appears to be what has happened.
Since my last one, I’ve made more changes to the states that are
solid for Bush or Kerry. I’ve put Missouri back in the solid column
for Bush. Bush now has a lock on the following states for 202
electoral votes: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana,
Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana,
Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina,
South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming. For
Kerry, I have put Oregon in the solid category, while taking Hawaii
and Michigan out. Thus, California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C.,
Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island,
Vermont, and Washington are now solid for Kerry, totaling 167
electoral votes.
So, let’s get started on the rest:
Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Kerry closed the
gap here in mid-October, so much so that some Democratic 527 groups
decided to put some money into the state. Even Bill Clinton went
for a last minute visit. Will the Prodigal Son’s return pull it for
Kerry? Nope. Latest poll by Mason-Dixon, which is good at the state
level, showed Bush had regained his lead, now at 8 points.
Arkansas Votes Bush.
Colorado (9): Every poll now has Bush up here.
The smallest margin, save Zogby, is 5 points. Kerry pulled out of
here a while back. Colorado Votes Bush.
Florida (27): This one is close. Mason-Dixon
has Bush up 4, while Zogby shows Kerry up 1. Mason-Dixon is more
reliable on the state level, plus Zogby has shown Kerry’s lead
steadily shrinking. Plus, Senate candidate Mel Martinez will bring
out the Cuban vote, which portends well for the President.
Florida Votes Bush.
Hawaii (4): This is the biggest surprise of the
election season. No one seems to know why, but two polls from two
weeks ago showed the race essentially tied. I have heard the theory
that the Filipino-Americans in Hawaii favor Bush’s stance on
terrorism. I’ve also heard the explanation that there are a lot of
veterans in Hawaii who loathe Kerry. Still I don’t think Bush has
enough of a lead nationally to win here. Hawaii Votes
Kerry.
Iowa (7): My Hawkeye state is not an easy call.
Yet the only polls showing Kerry with the lead are Zogby and the
Des Moines Register, neither of which I put much stock in.
All others show Bush with a small lead. Given that union strength
here keeps declining, and the Bush get-out-the-vote efforts is much
better than 2000, Iowa Votes Bush.
Maine (4): Since polling began here in May,
only one poll ever showed a Bush lead. Easy call. Maine
Votes Kerry.
Michigan (17): This is the second biggest
surprise of this year. Michigan should be solid for Kerry, and the
fact that it is not (most polls show it to be a 3 to 4 point race)
must be giving the Democrats a major Maloxx moment. Kerry is
clinging to a lead here, and he is hurt by the fact that Michigan
has both gay marriage and gambling ballot initiatives, which will
turn out the conservatives in drove. Still, Bush has only held a
lead here in one poll since early September. I still think
Michigan Votes Kerry.
Minnesota (10): It is very close here too.
Until a few days ago, it looked like Bush might pull away, but
Kerry has picked up some steam here. Bush still has a very good
chance here, but I think Minnesota Votes
Kerry.
Nevada (5): One recent poll here showed a tie.
Other than that, it has been all Bush since early September. No
gambling here. Nevada Votes Bush.
New Hampshire (4): The Granite state promises
to be very close. Yet for the last two weeks, the polls have been
almost all Kerry save one, which was a tie. Word has it that a lot
of Massachusetts’ residents have fled to New Hampshire because of
its lack of an income tax, but otherwise bring their liberal
politics. New Hampshire Votes Kerry.
New Jersey (15): Kerry can’t feel too good
about the polls here showing it is close. New Jersey is, in a
sense, the first bellwether state of the night. If Bush wins here,
that sound you hear will be the fat lady clearing her throat. Yet,
the Bushies won’t be starting the party that quick. Bush paid a
visit here fifteen days before the election, but hasn’t been back
since, preferring to focus on Michigan. That tells me New
Jersey Votes Kerry.
New Mexico (5): The polls have bounced back and
forth in the Land of Enchantment. Right now, it looks good for
Bush, but Kerry winning here would not be a shocker. New
Mexico Votes Bush.
Ohio (20): Until last week, Bush had gone
missing from Ohio for a period of about two weeks. I thought this
troubling, since the polls showed Kerry leading. But this shows why
they run campaigns, and I just write about them. Apparently the
Republican Party has a very intricate get-out-the-vote organization
here and it is questionable to what extent the Democrats have much
of anything comparable. Add to that the fact that social
conservatives will come out in droves to vote for a ballot
initiative banning gay marriage, and it is not surprising that most
of the recent polls show Bush opening up a small lead. Looks like
the conservatives are coming home. Ohio Votes
Bush.
Pennsylvania (21): Kerry’s lead seems to have
shrunk a little in the last week. But it seems too little too late.
Kerry will win here by 1 to 2 points. Pennsylvania Votes
Kerry.
West Virginia (5): Bush appears to up by 8-9
points here now. West Virginia Votes Bush.
Wisconsin (10): This may be the toughest state
to call. Bush led in the polls here until last Wednesday, and then
Kerry showed a small lead. The one factor I see playing in Kerry’s
favor is that Democratic Senator Russ Feingold will win big here,
probably pulling some people toward Kerry. It won’t surprise me if
Bush wins here, but for now I’m betting Wisconsin Votes
Kerry.
By my count, that is Bush 286, Kerry 252.
A few final thoughts:
First, Bush supporters have some cause to be nervous. If either
Florida or Ohio votes Kerry, well, you can do the math. Both of
those states are still close. Ohio is particularly troubling as it
is a state that shouldn’t be too hard for the GOP to prevail (and
for why it isn’t, go here).
That said, Kerry supporters should be even more nervous. Of the
states that Bush won last time, Kerry is battling Bush only in
Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire. New Hampshire may be irrelevant;
thanks to reapportionment, Bush can lose New Hampshire but win all
of the other states he won last time and still come away with 274
electoral votes. Of the states that Gore won last time, Bush is
battling Kerry in Hawaii(?), Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico,
Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In short, Bush is fighting far more on
Kerry’s territory than vice-versa. Bush has more room to make up a
loss in Ohio than Kerry does to make up a loss in Michigan.
Finally, if Kerry should pull out a squeaker, I hope that Bush
concedes in a timely fashion. He should not mount a Gore-like legal
challenge barring substantial evidence of voter fraud in a state
that went narrowly for Kerry. There are three reasons. First, we
are trying to bring democracy to the Middle East, and we will be
setting a bad example if we can’t resolve our elections shortly
after the polls close. Next, opinion polls show Americans worried
that we are headed for another Florida-like imbroglio; another one
this time, and Americans will become increasingly cynical about our
system of government, something that could hurt us in the long run.
Finally, Bush should do it for the good of the GOP. If he mounts a
legal challenge, the Party will take a long time recovering from a
media-hyped charge of hypocrisy.
During his four years in office, President Bush has conducted
himself with considerable dignity and honor. I expect no less of
him this evening.
