WASHINGTON — Let me begin this analysis of the Electoral
College by admitting a mistake. Contrary to my initial impression,
the first debate has had a very positive effect for the Kerry
Campaign. Whether Kerry can maintain that momentum is the subject
of a later column.
Also, I’ll do my last column on the Electoral College right
before the election. In that one I will call all of the states for
one of the candidates. Until then, I can still cop out by using the
TOSS-UP category.
Since my last
analysis, I’ve made three changes to the states that are solid
for either Bush or Kerry. I’ve removed Missouri from the Bush
column while adding Tennessee. For Kerry, I’ve added Maryland, as
the latest poll has him up by double digits. Thus, Bush still has
23 solid states for a total of 191 electoral votes; they include
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas,
Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North
Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota,
Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming. Kerry has improved
to 181 solid electoral votes with California, Connecticut,
Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts,
Michigan, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.
Arkansas (6 electoral votes): Kerry has little
chance here, as Bush is nearing a double-digit lead in the polls.
This almost goes in the solid Bush column. LEANS
HEAVILY BUSH.
Colorado (9): A recent Gallup poll showed the
candidates tied. Two more recent polls show Bush with an 8 and
9-point lead. No poll here has ever shown Kerry with a lead, so I’m
cautiously putting this down as LEANS
BUSH.
Florida (27): Last time I wrote, “One more poll
showing Bush with a lead [in Florida], and it will be in the LEANS
BUSH category.” And then another poll came out showing Bush with
the lead. Then two polls were released showing Kerry with a small
edge. Now, three more polls show Bush taking the lead again. So,
one more poll and this goes in the LEANS BUSH category — I
promise. TOSS-UP.
Iowa (7): Iowa is one of the states in which
Kerry’s first debate performance seems to have had a serious
impact. After trailing all of September, Kerry now leads by 1 point
in two polls. The Hawkeye State was still in the LEANS BUSH
category a week ago, but now it is a
TOSS-UP.
Maine (4): Little movement here. Most recent
poll has Kerry up by only 2. Still a
TOSS-UP.
Minnesota (10): The first debate may have had
the biggest impact on the Land of 10,00 Lakes. Kerry appears to be
opening up a lead with a recent poll showing him up 7 points.
Switch from TOSS-UP to LEANS KERRY.
Missouri (11): A recent poll showed Bush’s lead
shrinking to 2 points here. The Kerry campaign may have been
premature in pulling advertising from the Show Me State. Since
Kerry is not on the air here, this state LEANS HEAVILY
BUSH.
Nevada (5): Bush’s lead here has shrunk a
little, but it still looks good. LEANS
BUSH.
New Hampshire (4): Of the five recent polls
here, three show a tie, one shows Kerry up 7, the other Bush up 5.
The very definition of TOSS-UP.
New Jersey (15): Looks like the one
mid-September poll showing Bush with a lead reflected the
incredible momentum Bush had back then. Ten polls since then show
two ties and eight with a Kerry lead. One more in favor of Kerry
and Jersey goes into the solid column. LEANS HEAVILY
KERRY.
New Mexico (5): Of the four recent polls here,
two show Bush up, two show Kerry. Still a
TOSS-UP.
Ohio (20): Another state in which Kerry’s
debate performance had a substantial impact. Bush led or was tied
in every poll since mid-August. Two recent polls show Kerry up one.
This has to give the Bush Campaign indigestion. Goes from LEANS
BUSH to TOSS-UP.
Oregon (7): This one is close to going LEANS
KERRY but not yet. One poll showed Kerry up 7, but a more recent
one showed the lead shrinking to 2.
TOSS-UP.
Pennsylvania (21): Bush actually led in two
polls here in late September. Kerry has since regained the lead,
but the latest polls show the lead at only 2 points. Kerry can’t be
happy that after the first debate he isn’t running away with it in
the Keystone State. LEANS KERRY.
West Virginia (5): A recent Zogby poll puts
Bush up six. This state still LEANS
BUSH.
Wisconsin (10): Every poll here since
mid-September has shown Bush with a lead, except a recent one that
showed Kerry up by 4. Combine that with the fact that the other
recent polls show Bush’s lead shrinking, and I’m tentatively moving
this from LEANS BUSH to TOSS-UP.
Assuming all the states vote the way they are leaning, my
electoral count is Kerry 234, Bush 227, with 77 as TOSS-UP.
If the Bush Campaign isn’t nervous going into tonight’s debate,
it should be. Another bad performance from Bush, and Kerry could
gain a lot more momentum. Furthermore, during the 20th Century no
Republican won the White House without also winning Ohio. Bush’s
slippage there is cause for concern.
That said, the current numbers may reflect the tail end of the
bounce Kerry received from the first debate. As good as that was
for him, he has only been able to pick up 17 electoral votes since
I last wrote about this. The ones he has sent into the TOSS-UP
column are only there marginally.
Kerry clearly needs more mishaps from the Bush Campaign to keep
the “BIG MO’” going. And that’s not a very good strategy.
On a related note: Tonight I will be on a panel discussion of
the election hosted by America’s Future Foundation. The event will
take place at the Fund for American Studies, at 1706 New Hampshire
Avenue NW. Drinks will begin at 7pm, dinner and panel discussion at
7:30pm. You’ll need to RSVP at roundtable@americasfuture.org.
To gain entrance you must also buy me a beer. Just kidding — but I
won’t stop you from buying me one if you like.
