The American Spectator

Oregon (7): This one is close to going LEANS KERRY but not yet. One poll showed Kerry up 7, but a more recent one showed the lead shrinking to 2. TOSS-UP.

Pennsylvania (21): Bush actually led in two polls here in late September. Kerry has since regained the lead, but the latest polls show the lead at only 2 points. Kerry can’t be happy that after the first debate he isn’t running away with it in the Keystone State. LEANS KERRY.

West Virginia (5): A recent Zogby poll puts Bush up six. This state still LEANS BUSH.

Wisconsin (10): Every poll here since mid-September has shown Bush with a lead, except a recent one that showed Kerry up by 4. Combine that with the fact that the other recent polls show Bush’s lead shrinking, and I’m tentatively moving this from LEANS BUSH to TOSS-UP.

Assuming all the states vote the way they are leaning, my electoral count is Kerry 234, Bush 227, with 77 as TOSS-UP.

If the Bush Campaign isn’t nervous going into tonight’s debate, it should be. Another bad performance from Bush, and Kerry could gain a lot more momentum. Furthermore, during the 20th Century no Republican won the White House without also winning Ohio. Bush’s slippage there is cause for concern.

That said, the current numbers may reflect the tail end of the bounce Kerry received from the first debate. As good as that was for him, he has only been able to pick up 17 electoral votes since I last wrote about this. The ones he has sent into the TOSS-UP column are only there marginally.

Kerry clearly needs more mishaps from the Bush Campaign to keep the “BIG MO’” going. And that’s not a very good strategy.

p>On a related note: Tonight I will be on a panel discussion of the election hosted by America’s Future Foundation. The event will take place at the Fund for American Studies , at 1706 New Hampshire Avenue NW. Drinks will begin at 7pm, dinner and panel discussion at 7:30pm. You’ll need to RSVP at roundtable@americasfuture.org. br> To gain entrance you must also buy me a beer. Just kidding — but I won’t stop you from buying me one if you like. /p>