Bush won the debate last night.
Yes, yes, all the snap polls and focus groups, like most of the
talking heads, say that Kerry won. It was stylistically his best
performance in memory. He certainly passed the “looks Presidential”
test. The lights indicating the time limit, which everyone,
including me, thought would hurt Kerry, turned out to be great for
him, forcing him to adjust his rhetorical style for the better; it
was in fact Bush who went over time once.
But here’s a quick test of last night’s electoral effect: what
do you remember a day later, off the top of your head?
Chances are, it’s that Kerry called Iraq “the wrong war at the
wrong place at the wrong time.” Or that it is bad to send “mixed
messages” (or “mixed signals”). Bush said each of these things
seven times (Kerry, attempting to parry Bush’s thrusts, said “mixed
messages” another three times). Kerry spoke competently on each
point of debate, but swing voters aren’t going to walk around with
his talking points in mind — he only brought up rushing to war
three times, for example.
Kerry scored some real rhetorical blows, but he didn’t hammer
them home as he should have. The failure to catch bin Laden in Tora
Bora is a real vulnerability, and while Kerry wisely brought it up
early, he only mentioned it again once. While Bush may have the
better half of the argument over the efficacy of bilateral vs.
multilateral talks with Pyongyang, and the Clintonites may bear
much of the blame for the progress of North Korea’s nuclear
program, but the fact that the missiles went online recently is, at
bottom, a big problem for the President. By the time Kerry brought
up North Korea, casual viewers — and the typical swing voter is
about as casual as they come — may have already tuned out.
And Kerry’s performance, as good as it was by his standards, was
still marred by a few gaffes. That his idea of a superior president
is one who asks foreign leaders “What do you need, what do you need
now, how much more will it take to get you to join us?” is not the
best image for Kerry to project. Romantically invoking a meeting
with Charles de Gaulle in Paris does little to dispel the
perception of excessive France-friendliness. And the notion of
“global test” for when preemption is okay left Bush open to zing
him for wanting to let international popularity trump national
interest.
Matt Drudge posted last night that Kerry advisors were
unknowingly caught in a candid conversation by C-SPAN’s cameras
where Joe Lockhart told Mike McCurry that “the consensus is it was
a draw.” Lockhart is more or less correct. And that’s why I say
Bush won. Kerry might get a small bounce in the polls, but probably
not enough to fundamentally change the trajectory of the race.
Is the election over? Not yet — despite the consensus that last
night’s would be by far the most important match-up, something in
the upcoming debates could prove far more relevant. A lot can
change in a month. For the moment, though, Bush’s small edge is
likely to remain.
