Although the Bush Campaign has its shortcomings, managing
expectations is not one of them. All along Bush operatives have
been insisting that 2004 would be a close campaign. Undoubtedly,
that insistence has kept the GOP base from becoming dispirited as
the poll numbers from the last few months have indeed shown a
likely close race. Before the Democratic convention they were even
cagier, predicting a bounce for Kerry that could give him a
15-point lead. The subsequent “no bounce” not only had the effect
of keeping the base upbeat but probably also increased doubts about
Kerry’s viability among undecided voters.
Now the Bush operatives claim that don’t expect their campaign
to get a bounce from the Republicans’ own convention this week.
This is surely wise strategy, as it will both keep them from
looking like fools and prevent the base from feeling disappointed
if no bounce materializes. Yet it is also not very believable. Most
of the important factors increasingly point to a Bush bounce after
the convention.
Protesters: The only way that the protesters in
New York City could hurt Bush is if the police act like the shock
troops under Mayor Daley did in 1968. Thus far, Mayor Mike
Bloomberg has been conciliatory to the point of being generous to
the protesters, enticing them to behave with all sorts of free
goodies. This suggests that Mayor Mike has urged the NY police to
use restraint should violence occur. Thus, should some of the
protesters resort to violence, it will only be a black mark on the
anti-war movement, given Americans’ general disdain for violent
protests. Many voters also have a low threshold for the sort of
looniness that characterizes a lot of anti-war protests, such as
comparisons of Bush to Hitler. If the protesters succeed in
associating being anti-Bush with violence and/or extremism, it will
push a lot of voters into the Bush column.
GOP Convention: It is hard to imagine how this
convention could have been managed any better. Thus far, there are
no major fights over the platform and no group of delegates
threatening to disrupt the proceedings, like a “Republicans Against
the War” group. The list of primetime speakers couldn’t get much
better. Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Arnold Schwarzenegger will
boost viewership of the convention and put a popular face on the
GOP. Having Democratic Senator Zell Miller give the keynote address
— assuming his speech is like his book, A National Party No
More — will only sow further doubts about the Democrats’
ability to govern in a time of war. A convention that is empty of
controversy, filled with popular faces, and topped off with a
defector from the other party will put Bush in a good position to
get a boost in the polls.
Kerry in August: Another factor that puts Bush
in a good position for a bounce is that Kerry has had a terrible
month. It began, actually, in late July during his convention
speech. Kerry blew his chance to persuade voters to abandon Bush
when he failed to give voters any real alternative on foreign
policy. Instead, he gave a speech light on the War on Terrorism,
and heavy on his Vietnam experience. Then came the Swift Boat
Veterans for Truth, which, with every day that passes, should be
renamed the “Kerry Nightmare.” Although the mainstream media have
tried to build a defense around Kerry on this issue, the SWVT has
landed some serious blows. While not all of the SWVT’s charges are
accurate, it has compelled Kerry Campaign to admit that Kerry’s
first purple heart was the result of friendly fire and that Kerry
was not in Cambodia on Christmas Eve 1968. Combined with the Kerry
Campaign’s ham-handed approach to the controversy, the SWVT has
succeeded in driving Kerry’s poll numbers down. It appears that a
lot of moderate voters are primed to abandon Kerry.
But will they embrace Bush? Much will depend on Bush’s speech
Thursday night. If he rattles off a Clinton-like laundry list of
mini-initiatives, like he did in the second half of this year’s
State of the Union Address, he will have blown it. Bush does much
better when he talks about broad themes, and that is what must
dominate his convention speech. The “ownership society” is one
theme he should emphasize. Focusing on how he believes that
individuals should have responsibility and control over their
retirement, health-care and education would open up a nice contrast
with Kerry.
Most importantly, he need to fill the vacuum that Kerry has left
him on foreign policy. Since Kerry has given the voters no vision
of where he wants to take our foreign policy in the next four
years, Bush must. He needs to give voters an understanding that
establishing a functioning democracy in Iraq is vital to winning
the War on Terrorism, that free societies do not breed terrorism,
and Iraq is the first step in bringing liberty to the Middle East.
He should also give voters some idea what the next steps are in the
War. What do we do to bring democracy to the rest of the Middle
East? How will we handle Iran and North Korea? By addressing such
questions, Bush will reassure voters that he knows where he wants
to take our foreign policy.
If Bush can do that, he will get a bounce coming out of the
convention. Furthermore, he will take command of the foreign policy
issue, and Kerry will spend the rest of the campaign trying to
catch up. The other factors are in place for this to happen. Bush
needs to do the rest.
