With the release of a recent Washington Post/ABCNews
opinion poll, it seems that President Bush is in more trouble than
ever before. His approval number still hangs at 47%, and now he has
lost his once big edge over Kerry on the War on Terrorism.
Yet the poll has some flaws, namely that it uses as respondents
either adults or registered voters rather than the more accurate
“likely voters.” Thus, it is not the best predictor of the November
election. Nevertheless, this poll, like so many others, shows that
Bush’s numbers continue their general downward slide of the last
few months. One wonders how much longer this will have to continue
before conservative pundits begin seriously talking about a Bush
loss and speculating about the nature of a Kerry
Administration.
Some of the erosion in Bush’s numbers comes from a rather
surprising cohort. While Iraq has undoubtedly hurt Bush, he is also
facing trouble among his base. Bruce Bartlett recently speculated
that Bush has lost the support of fiscal conservatives with his
betrayal on a number of issues: tariffs, higher spending on
education and agriculture, support for the National Endowment of
the Arts, and, of course, the prescription drug bill.
A look at the historical numbers from the Washington
Post/ABCNews poll suggests this is true. During most of 2003,
Bush’s approval numbers among Republicans were above or very close
to 90%. Yet in October, Bush started to post consistent numbers in
the mid-to high 80s among Republicans, which coincides with the
debate over the Medicare prescription drug bill. In early January
the numbers jumped again to the mid-90s, likely the residual from
the capture of Saddam Hussein. Since then, however, Bush has never
broken 90% among Republicans, at times — March and May — sinking
to the low 80s.
While it is true that this poll, as noted above, has some
limitations, those identifying themselves as Republicans in such
polls are more likely to vote than those who identify themselves as
independents. Bartlett concludes that these disaffected fiscal
conservatives have nowhere to go, since Kerry is worse. Indeed, on
November 2 they might just go nowhere, opting to stay home.
HAPPILY, THIS IS NOT a cause for panic. This problem is, unlike the
situation in Iraq, much easier to solve. Bush has at least four
things he can do between now and November that would bring fiscal
conservatives back into the fold:
Veto the Transportation Bill: The
transportation bill before Congress is a mess of pork and
overspending. The Senate version calls for $318 billion in spending
while the House version calls for $284 billion. The Administration
has said the President will veto any bill costing more than $256
billion, but has recently suggested it could go along with one of
$275 billion as long as it didn’t raise taxes or increase the
deficit. Bad idea. Stick with the $256 billion figure, and veto
anything even a penny over. Such a veto will send a signal to
fiscal conservatives that the Bush Administration takes their
complaints seriously.
Fight for Welfare Reform: The reauthorization
of the best social policy reform in the last twenty years is
stalled in the Senate by none other than Ted Kennedy. Bush should
campaign on this because welfare reform is a winner not only with
fiscal conservatives but also independents. It also gives him an
opportunity to put pressure on his opponent. Why Bush isn’t calling
on John Kerry to demand his fellow Massachusetts Senator to end his
filibuster is a bit of a mystery.
Promote Consumer-Driven Health Care: Rep. John
Shadegg and Speaker Dennis Hastert have just introduced a bill that
would allow individuals to purchase health insurance from any state
in the nation. State governments currently drive up the cost of
health-care by mandating that insurance must cover certain
conditions, whether the health-care consumer wants such coverage or
not. The Shadegg-Hastert bill would allow consumers to buy
insurance from states that have fewer mandates and hence cheaper
insurance. If Bush were to get behind this bill and couple it with
his proposal to give tax credits to individuals for the purchase of
insurance, he would further appeal to fiscal conservatives and
close some of the gap in the polls that exists between him and
Kerry on the issue of health care.
Campaign on Social Security Reform: Although
the Bush camp has said the President will campaign on the issue of
personal accounts, so far it has been little more than a fizzle.
The issue worked well for Republicans in 2002, and that was when
the stock market was near a three-year low. Now the market has
recovered, so the issue should be even more of a winner. Will the
Bush Campaign run TV ads emphasizing Bush and Kerry’s differences
on this issue? It should.
These four proposals would help Bush win back support of fiscal
conservatives and have appeal among independents. They won’t
substitute for Bush winning back voters’ confidence in his ability
to handle Iraq. But they can add to it.
