If John Kerry wins the presidency, most of us will be driving
Chevettes — or the modern-day equivalent, at any rate. The
Massachusetts senator has proposed jacking up federal fuel economy
requirements for new cars to as much as 36 miles-per-gallon as part
of his plan to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil. The problem
is that only subcompact economy cars are capable of achieving
nearly 40-mpg. If the government put such a requirement into place,
if would in effect be outlawing mid-size and larger passenger cars
— and all SUVs and pick-up trucks.
There is not a single 2004 model year pick-up or SUV that comes
close to achieving 36-mpg. Mid-size family cars like the Honda
Accord and Toyota Camry don’t make the cut, either — even in
four-cylinder form. Equipped with V-6 engines, they’re not even in
the ballpark.
Better get your V-8, before it’s too late…
Kerry has proposed these wrenching changes to reduce energy use
and thus wean us away from our dependence on the oil produced by
politically unstable Middle Eastern countries such Saudi Arabia,
Iraq, and Iran. But the idea of imposing top-down fuel efficiency
requirements is not a new one. It has been tried before — during
the energy crisis of the 1970s.
It didn’t work then. And it won’t work now, either.
Federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements have
been in effect for decades — yet there has been no reduction in
overall fuel consumption. Today’s cars and trucks are indeed more
efficient than the cars of the 1970s and 1980s. But Americans drive
greater distances as a result — burning more fuel each year than
they did in pre-CAFE days. What makes Kerry think that people would
drive less if their cars went even further on a gallon of gas? Or
does he plan to impose restrictions on how many miles Americans may
drive each year?
CAFE requirements have also had unintended side effects — most
notably the boom in SUV and pick-up sales — which now account for
about half of all new vehicles sold. When the original CAFE
mandates came along, they effectively outlawed large,
rear-wheel-drive passenger sedans and station wagons equipped with
V-8 engines. In fact, just one such mass market model exists today
— the Ford Crown Victoria. But the marketplace did an end run
around CAFE by switching over to “light trucks” — SUVs and
pick-ups. These formerly niche vehicles — mostly bought by
farmers, contractors, and so on — were subject to a less-strict
CAFE requirement. But these vehicles provided the same attributes
people used to buy large sedans and station wagons for —
roominess, size, and powerful engines. Thus the SUV boom was
ignited — courtesy of CAFE and the law of unforeseen
consequences.
Does Kerry have another “plan” to deal with the unforeseen
consequences of CAFE II?
One consequence, though, is a sure bet. If the government
imposes the draconian new fuel efficiency requirements Kerry is
agitating for, the automakers will have to build smaller, lighter
— and thus less safe — vehicles, just as they did in the 1970s.
While non-engineers such as Kerry like to talk in generalities
about “new technologies” that will somehow allow us to drive
mid-sized and larger cars that also manage to return the fuel
economy of subcompacts, the fact is such technology does not yet
exist — and may never exist. The internal combustion engine has
already been refined to the nth degree and significant improvements
in fuel economy will be hard to come by — or very expensive. Few
Americans — excepting perhaps a millionaire such as Kerry — could
afford a $60,000 family car, even if it can get 40-mpg.
As before, the automakers will simply shave weight — and build
smaller cars — to comply with CAFE II. And as before, people will
die. It has been estimated that about 2,000 people are killed every
year as a result of the CAFE-induced “downsizing” of the typical
passenger cars — which lost about 1,000 lbs. on average between
the 1970s and the 1990s. All the air bags and crumple zones in the
world won’t prevent a similar body count in the event Kerry’s
proposal becomes law.
But only if Kerry becomes president first.
