Is the Kerry campaign on the verge of imploding? Barely two
weeks after unofficially sewing up the nomination, John Kerry
doesn’t look at all like a candidate who has been leading in the
polls. He seems increasingly gaffe-prone, the quality that
ultimately sank Howard Dean.
Last week Kerry and his campaign had to fend off the press over
the “lying, crooked” remark, and they fended it off like Napoleon
fended off the British at Waterloo. Instead, spokesman David Wade
said Kerry was referring to some elusive “Republican attack
machine” that included Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh, and Sean Hannity.
When no one really believed that, Kerry offered the slightly less
believable explanation that he was referring to “attack dogs,” and
not Republicans in general. Had Kerry issued a non-apology apology
such as, “I regret that the public heard those remarks; it was said
in the heat of the moment, when I was tired,” the story might have
faded away. Instead, Kerry gave it legs.
On Sunday, Kerry almost had a Howard Dean-Dale Ungerer moment
during a town hall meeting in Pennsylvania. Audience member and
Bush supporter Cedric Brown challenged Kerry on his claim that
“foreign leaders” had told him that he needs to beat Bush. “It’s
not your business. It’s mine,” Kerry responded testily before going
on to challenge Brown’s credibility. “Did you vote for George
Bush?” Kerry demanded. Not quite the same as telling someone to
“sit down!”, but not exactly magnanimous either.
The “foreign leaders” remark is tactically one of the worst by
any candidate in quite some time. It even prompted Colin Powell,
usually quite circumspect, to enter the fray. “I don’t know what
foreign leaders Senator Kerry is talking about,” Powell said on
Sunday. “If he can’t list names, then perhaps he should find
something else to talk about.” The problem is that Kerry will have
a hard time finding something else to talk about. By suggesting
that foreign leaders want to see him elected president, Kerry
precipitated questions by the press to know which leaders he was
referring too. Since Kerry insists that he cannot betray their
confidence, the questions will continue to linger.
Recently Juan Williams described Kerry as “someone who can take
a punch and punch back on his way to a strong finish.” Yet last
week showed a Kerry who was punch drunk. The reason is that Kerry’s
campaign skills really haven’t been tested. The only real challenge
Kerry faced during the primary was revamping his campaign after he
lost the lead in the polls to Howard Dean. Dean’s implosion is what
was primarily responsible for Kerry’s wins in Iowa and New
Hampshire. After the Granite State win had cemented his position as
frontrunner, Kerry never really faced a serious attack. Gephardt
and Lieberman were gone early, Clark was feckless, Dean was in
disarray, and Edwards played too nice. Perhaps if Kerry had to
defend his status as a frontrunner, it would have toughened him up,
made him more careful in his remarks, and impressed upon him the
difference between putting out fires and pouring gasoline on
them.
Indeed, Kerry hasn’t faced a tough challenge since his Senate
race of 1996. (He ran unopposed in 2002.) And a closer look at that
victory, over GOP Governor William Weld, suggests that Kerry’s
ability to best a tough opponent is suspect. Kerry beat Weld by
only seven percentage points, despite outspending Weld by $4.6
million, and running in what was a good year for Democrats and
during Bill Clinton’s successful effort to make the unpopular Newt
Gingrich the face of the Republican Party. As the Almanac of
American Politics suggested, it “may simply have been a matter
of Democrats coming home,” as Clinton walloped Dole in
Massachusetts 61-28%. Kerry didn’t so much fight his way to the
finish line as he was carried there on Clinton’s coattails.
Last week Kerry demonstrated campaign skills that are very
rusty, if they exist at all. Unless he makes big improvements
quickly, he is headed for a meltdown. Since he is not given to
impulsive primal screams à la Dean, it will not be
sudden. Rather, it will draw out like a blade as he compounds one
gaffe with another and another…
