If you want a conventional analysis of the possible vice
presidential picks for presumptive Democratic presidential nominee
Sen. John Kerry, you can’t do much better than John J. Miller on National Review Online.
Miller, however, overlooks important factors — the most
important factors — in picking a running mate.
These factors follow a theme, well-known to all presidential
aspirants, but apparently less well-understood among media
commentators, who consistently guess wrong about veep picks. The
theme: The vice-presidential nominee must make the presidential
nominee look good by comparison. The v.p. cannot in any way show up
any shortcomings in the would-be Prez.
In Kerry’s case, that presents a real pickle, a dilemma not seen
since the 1988 campaign of George H. W. Bush, a man perceived at
the time, like Kerry now (though the media will not admit it), as
relentlessly second-rate.
First, the v.p. nominee has to be almost as tall as John Kerry,
but not quite as tall. Neither can he be appreciably shorter (think
Mutt ‘n’ Jeff). Note to Kerry campaign: Check heights. The Senator
stands six feet four. Somewhere between five-ten and six-two would
be ideal. In addition, the nominee cannot be fat, or even appear to
be fat when standing next to the long, lanky Yankee. In the event
Kerry picks a woman, she cannot be Donna Shalala or Madeleine
Albright.
Second, the veep cannot be a better speaker or debater than John
Kerry. That presents some problems, since John Kerry is one of the
duller characters on the national stage, speech-wise, being devoted
to the sound-byte drone style of address and debate. Al Gore would
be perfect in this regard, a born second banana, a devotee of the
talking point, and obviously not quite gifted. Al Gore has a
problem or two, however. (Campaign note: Consider Boston Mayor
Thomas Menino, dubbed “Mumbles” by talk show host Howie Carr.)
Third, the candidate cannot possess any kind of independent star
power greater than the presumptive wattage of Senator Kerry. Forget
Hillary, in other words. And a long list of others, let us count
the ways of political starshine: Chuck Schumer, Jon Corzine, Jim
McGreevey, Ed Rendell, Skip Humphrey…Ah, the snores in the
offing, as we contemplate middling tall, cautious speaking
politicians of no particular radiance.
Fourth, a political reality. John Kerry, already the member of a
loser class for nearly half a century in the Presidential stakes
(Congress), cannot pick another member of Congress or former member
of Congress. That limits his choices to modestly tall, fairly dull
governors, big city mayors, or former cabinet members in Democratic
administrations, who have achieved no Q-factor eminence, or at
least not too much.
Fifth, the candidate cannot be radioactive in any way. Think of
the Tom Eagleton imbroglio early in the McGovern campaign.
Eagleton, as you may not remember, turned out to have been
committed to an asylum at one point, where he received electroshock
therapy. What is today’s version of radioactive? Kerry cannot
afford any direct connection to the gay rights lobby, not with gay
marriage on the national stage. Okay, so we’ve got six feet (maybe
a little more), modest speaking ability, minimal star power, no
Senators or Reps, no fame, and now we’ve got no controversy,
either.
Sixth, Kerry cannot afford another “military” man or (heavens!)
woman. Kerry was a Lieutenant (J.G.). Virtually any military
achiever will outrank him. Neither can Kerry afford another
anti-Vietnam activist.
Finally, although Kerry won’t want to pick somebody of whom the
first reaction is, “Who?” he almost certainly will. He might choose
a judge, though it’s hard to find a judge who cannot talk better
than Kerry, at least a little. It’s a fair indicator of Kerry’s
dilemma that the two candidates who strike me as nearly ideal are
Christine Todd Whitman and the pre-Presidential George W. Bush.
No, I’m afraid we’re in for the Democratic equivalent of Dan
Quayle.
