By David Hogberg on 2.20.04 @ 12:06AM
John Kerry is as shaky as he is tall. Which is why John Edwards still could topple him.
Can Senator John Edwards win the Democratic nomination? His
surprise showing in Wisconsin suddenly has the punditry buzzing.
"Senator Edwards' second-place showing made it easier for him to
argue that the 29 days since the Iowa caucuses have not been enough
time to pick his party's best-tested nominee," glowed an article in
Wednesday's New York Times. Meanwhile Kerry seems to have
peaked. His poor debate performance coupled with the non-story
story about a possible extra-marital affair have slowed his
momentum.
But has it slowed it sufficiently? Kerry is still well out in
front of Edwards in the delegate count, 608 to 190. For Edwards to
reach the needed 2,162 delegates, he would have to win 62% of the
remaining delegates in the upcoming primaries and caucuses. That's
a Herculean task, though not impossible. If Edwards really wants to
upend Kerry, here is what he needs to do:
Idaho or Utah: Edwards needs a win in one of
these two states next week to build on whatever momentum he got
from Wisconsin. He should focus on Idaho, since it is smaller in
population, giving Edwards a better chance of meeting as many
voters as possible. With a win in one of these two states, he would
gather even more momentum for Super Tuesday March 2. It would also
show that he can win among Democrats who are, on average, more
conservative than Democrats on the whole. This is vital, because it
would help him boost his…
Electability, Electability, Electability:
Edwards needs to hammer home the most important lesson of
Wisconsin: that he could do far better among Republicans and
Independents in a general election than Kerry. He should repeat
this fact ad nauseam. With a victory in Idaho or Utah, he can show
that he can carry a state with more conservative Democrats that
isn't in the South. By adding that feather in his cap, the only
hole remaining in his electability argument is that he is a trial
lawyer.
Debate, Debate, Debate: Last Sunday in
Wisconsin Edwards gave as many yes/no answers as Kerry gave evasive
ones. Edwards should challenge Kerry to as many debates as
possible. With Howard Dean now out of the race, more debates would
only sharpen the differences between Kerry and Edwards, almost
certainly to Edwards' benefit. And if Kerry ducks Edwards, that
will only make Kerry look like he is afraid.
A Major Foreign Policy Speech: Edwards is an
absolute lightweight on foreign policy. Shawn Macomber noticed that
he rarely mentioned the War on Terrorism in his stump speeches in
New Hampshire; I noticed the same thing on reviewing my tapes of
Edwards' speeches in Iowa. Edwards could remedy this by using an
innovative idea proposed yesterday by Lee Harris in the Wall
Street Journal. The gist is that someone like Edwards needs to
address Americans' "skeptical doubt about the feasibility of
extending liberalism to parts of the world that have no indigenous
history of liberalism." Were Edwards to give an address outlining
the limits of America's ability to spread democracy around the
world, he would signal that he is ready to challenge President Bush
over foreign policy. It would also put Kerry on the defensive, who
as of late has sounded like Bill Clinton on foreign affairs. It
could also touch off a national political debate that this country
should have during this election season.
No More Mister Nice Guy: In his stump speeches,
Edwards likes to say, "If you are looking for the candidate who
will do the best job of smacking at the other Democratic
candidates, I'm not your guy." Come on, John, it's time to drop the
sugary-sweet act. The only way to bring down the frontrunner is to
attack him. Surely there is plenty in Kerry's record. For example,
Kerry likes to boast that he voted for Ronald Reagan's tax cut of
1986, which reduced the top marginal income-tax rate to 28%. Why
not hit him for cutting taxes for the rich? Such an attack would
only add to Kerry's vulnerability as a waffler.
It is still possible for Edwards to pull off a huge political
upset. Yes, Edwards' chances are slim. But then, so were Kerry's
barely six weeks ago.
topics:
Taxes, Foreign Policy, Bill Clinton, Law, NATO
