At the beginning of last week, with the Louisiana gubernatorial
run-off election set for Saturday, Republican Bobby Jindal had a
comfortable lead in the polls. Though his opponent, Kathleen
Blanco, picked up momentum in late polling, many prognosticators
(including Larry Sabato, RealClearPolitics, and your correspondent) thought that
the 32-year-old, born in Baton Rouge to Indian immigrants and
sporting an impressive resume, would still pull it off. He didn’t.
What happened?
A Rhodes scholar, Jindal was Secretary of the state Department
of Health and Hospitals at 24; he went on to stints running the
state university system and shaping Medicare policy as an assistant
Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Bush administration
before running for governor. His rise to frontrunner status was
typical of Jindal’s meteoric career, but his campaign, flawless in
the first five weeks of the six-week campaign, faltered in the
sixth. In the final debate, Jindal had won on points, many observers agreed. But voters responded less to
Jindal’s command of policy than to Blanco’s teary recollection of
her son’s death, in response to a question about the defining
moments of the candidates’ lives. The theme of the campaign up
until then seemed to be an insurgent conservative whiz-kid
representing Louisiana’s future against a creature of the
entrenched Democratic establishment representing the state’s past.
The debate was the beginning of Blanco’s effort to shift the theme
into a match between a sensitive and seasoned leader against a
robotic young wonk.
The key to getting that message out was an attack ad claiming
that, as head of the Department of Health and Hospitals, when
Jindal cleaned up a $400 million accounting mess, he ruined the
state’s Medicaid system for the poor. Jindal’s campaign failed to
answer with an ad that substantively challenged the message, a
mistake that proved fatal.
So why did I think Jindal would win? The demographics seemed
stacked in his favor. Throughout the South, a formula exists for
Democratic victory, typically 40% of the white vote plus 90% of the
black vote. “Increasingly over the years,” writes Senator Zell
Miller in his new book A National Party No More: The Conscience
of a Conservative Democrat, “it has been easier to get 90
percent of the African-American vote than 40 percent of the white
vote. I believe that the margin of African-American votes for the
Democrats is going to change soon. It only has to change a fraction
in the South to make a huge difference.” In Louisiana, the formula
is even more lopsided — a Democrat shoots for closer to a third of
the white vote and 95% of the black vote.
Jindal would have been the first nonwhite governor of Louisiana
since Reconstruction. He was endorsed by New Orleans Mayor Ray
Nagin, a black Democrat. In some polls, he was getting as much as
15% support from blacks. According to exit poll analysis done for
the New Orleans Times-Picayune by the consulting firm GCR
and Associates, Jindal ultimately won 9% of the black vote
statewide — 11% in New Orleans. That would have tipped the scales
for most Louisiana Republicans.
So how did Blanco win? By getting 40% of the white vote. That
didn’t come from New Orleans, where 70% of whites voted for Jindal,
but from the poorer, more rural areas, where Blanco won 52% of the
white vote — a coup for a Democrat in culturally conservative
areas. The Medicaid ad was well-tailored for this demographic; the
speaker in the ad, a doctor who used to work in the public health
system and is now in a wheelchair, ends his statement with the
words, “‘By the way, I’m a staunch Republican.”
But there’s a less savory reason that Blanco made inroads in
northern Louisiana. This is where former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard
David Duke got the votes in 1991 that propelled him into the
run-off election against the corrupt former governor Edwin Edwards.
(The latter is now serving time in jail for taking bribes; this was
the race that gave us the classic bumper sticker, “Vote for the
Crook. It’s Important.”)
“If there was a racist backlash against Jindal anywhere, it
would be in north Louisiana, in Duke country,” Louisiana political
analyst John Maginnis told Rod Dreher of National Review Online after the race. To
some extent, Blanco laid the groundwork for a such a backlash
herself. She dusted off her maiden name and campaigned as
Kathleen Babineaux Blanco. Voters encountered the full name on the
ballot, where her opponent was listed as “Bobby” Jindal, complete
with quotation marks (Jindal’s given name is Piyush). Appealing to
tribal instincts in the only state where Frenchness is still
considered a virtue, Blanco’s packaging of herself was designed to
make it clear who had the deeper roots in Cajun country.
Such tapping of identity politics for ethnic whites is nothing
particularly unusual or scandalous. The shamrock incorporated into
Irish-American candidates’ names is a staple of local politics
across much of the Midwest and Northeast. It would be unfair to
suggest that Blanco ran a racist campaign. At the same time, isn’t
it worth noting that the usual suspects, to whom unfairness rarely
gives pause, haven’t so much as raised an eyebrow?
It might be useful to file this case away as a yardstick for the
future. There was a small amount of coverage of northern
Louisiana’s racial politics during the race — Adam Nossiter’s AP
dispatch from last Friday, a set of quotes culled to make the town
of Amite, Louisiana, sound as awful as possible (sample: “Really,
you got a foreigner and a woman. So it’s a hard choice to make”),
was typical — but the “Babineaux Blanco” appeal to “Duke country”
has gone mostly unnoticed. The next time Al Sharpton or Jesse
Jackson or Kweisi Mfume or any similar rabble-rouser announces a
whiff of racism (or “racial insensitivity”), measure the grievance
cited against this non-event. The comparison might be
illuminating.
