Mark Palmer wants, quite literally, to save the world. His new
book is titled
Breaking the Real Axis of Evil: How To Oust the World’s Last
Dictators by 2025 (Rowman & Littlefield, 320 pages,
$27.95); for Palmer, the “real” Axis of Evil extends to the
forty-five dictators who now rule countries ranked by Freedom House
as Not Free. Though no one would call this a modest goal, the list
does exclude strongmen who control Partly Free countries —
Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, for example — so the plan is in fact to
oust only the worst dictators. (One might also debate how much
further this “real” Axis extends beyond the one alluded to in
President Bush’s 2002 State of the Union address; contrary to
popular belief, Bush never limited the Axis to Iraq, Iran, and
North Korea, but rather said that “States like these, and their
terrorist allies, constitute an axis of evil.”)
Palmer is comfortable with military engagement, and indeed says
that “contrary to common wisdom, force should not always be
considered a last resort.” But his heart is with the sort of
nonviolent struggles that he witnessed, and nurtured, as Ambassador
to Hungary in the 1980s when the Iron Curtain fell. Military force,
for Palmer, is a tool to be used in conjunction with the nonviolent
opposition to tyranny that most of his book focuses on. He explores
a vast toolbox for democrats, both outside and inside democracy,
examining the techniques available for nudging closed societies
open, and listing at one point 198 methods of nonviolent action
(including, for instance, 23 types of strike and 25 types of
economic boycott). For activists, this portion of the book is a
remarkable resource.
Palmer has specific suggestions for working to oust the
“Forty-Five Least Wanted,” all within the framework of the most
problematic plank of his agenda: the creation of an united front of
democracies, built on a consensus that the spread of democracy is a
critical security goal. Palmer himself has been integral in the
creation of the Community of Democracies. (Don’t feel dumb if you
haven’t heard of it; though 110 governments participated in the
CD’s second meeting in Seoul in November 2002 — which yielded
little more than an uncontroversial endorsement of political
freedom as a concept — it received almost no attention outside of
the South Korean capital.) Palmer admits that CD is a work in
progress, but he envisions it as a muscular force for democracy
promotion — a strong caucus in the United Nations, a broad
security alliance — and calls on it to endorse “all out and
universal democracy by 2025” as its goal. Palmer would thus like to
upend the traditional fastidiousness about interfering in other
countries’ affairs and declare dictatorship itself a crime against
humanity.
Palmer understands that this would mean a sea change in
international practices, but it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that
he not only underestimates the depth of division within the worlds
democracies, but fundamentally misunderstands those divisions.
Writing of the efficacy of international criminal tribunals, he
asks:
“Why then are so many in Washington so heavily opposed to the
establishment of an International Criminal Court (ICC)? It is
clearly because of concern that governments not committed to the
rule of law would have judges on the court, could destroy the
court’s integrity, and could end up trying the United States and
American soldiers for alleged crimes committed in the course of
promoting democracy and peace. One way to address this dilemma is
for the United States to try to convince other members of the CD
that judges on the ICC should only come from countries that do
respect the rule of law — namely the world’s democracies.”
But the state of the world’s democracies is such that politics
in any given democracy is often most clearly delineated by the
varying degrees of anti-Americanism or pro-Americanism of opposing
factions. Palmer’s plan to keep Syrian or Chinese judges off the
court misses the point: the fact that they come from democratic
nations hardly makes it wise for the U.S. to trust judges from
France or Belgium.
That he misunderstands the world’s democracies casts a shadow of
doubt over Palmer’s judgments on its dictators. His experience in
Hungary, and examples of similarly activist American ambassadors,
lead him to advocate the use of embassies as “freedom houses” that
use their influence to aid democrats within a dictatorships. Palmer
had success with Karoly Grosz in Hungary and Smith Hempstone was
successful at nudging concessions from the Kenyan strongman Daniel
arap Moi, and he suggests that Ambassadors should engage dictators
in an effort to convince them of the benefits of allowing democracy
and retiring gracefully, versus facing jail or hanging after an
ouster. Palmer admits that this won’t work with some dictators, but
insists it’s worth the effort.
BUT EVEN WHEN DICTATORS are ousted, is that, as Palmer tends to
imply, the end of the story? In another new book,
Talk of the Devil: Encounters with Seven Dictators (Walker
& Co., 224 pages, $22) the Italian journalist Riccardo Orizio’s
interviews, mixed with liberal helpings of history and travelogue,
suggest that the answer is often no. Orizio’s subjects, all of them
deposed former dictators (or in some cases their wives), seem in
several cases, propelled forward by their own megalomania, quite a
bit less than ready for a quiet retirement.
An unrepentant Nexhmije Hoxha, the “Black Widow” of the late
Albanian tyrant Enver Hoxha, is out of jail and talking like she’s
up for another revolt: “The forces of obscurantism have destroyed
the Socialist system in Albania with barbarous ferocity and have
also destroyed our industry and our wealth.” Jean-Claude Duvalier
is biding his time in France, ready to return to Haiti (where his
father remains a voodoo deity) if the Aristide government should
falter; there’s even a Baby Doc website, though there’s no content there
at the moment. And the man who during his reign was introduced as
His Excellency President for Life Field Marshal Al Hadj Doctor Idi
Amin Dada, VC, DSO, MC, Lord of All the Beasts of the Earth and
Fishes of the Sea and Conqueror of the British Empire in Africa in
General and Uganda in Particular was, even toward the end of his
life during his exile in Saudi Arabia, attempting to ship something
(it’s not clear what, but one can guess) to his son Taban Amin,
leading guerrilla attacks in the Congolese jungle against the army
of the democratic Uganda.
That the world’s democracies can become the unified force for
the promotion of liberty that Palmer envisions, a force that
doesn’t routinely fall for the sort of games of
one-step-forward-two-steps-back reform that have served tyrants so
well in Tehran, Pyongyang, and elsewhere, seems an unfortunately
long shot. And even if many of the “last 45” are forced to step
down, Orizio’s reporting suggests that many are likely to remain a
malign influence in their countries.
Certainly, the fostering of democracy worldwide should be a
national security priority. But given the circumstances of our
world, Palmer’s vision of a free world by 2025 seems sadly remote.
Perhaps by 2050?
