Who says Arnold S’s strategy of not talking to reporters and not
announcing policy positions isn’t paying off? Why, he’s already won
the support of
Rob Lowe and
M.C. Hammer. In fact, his chief financial adviser, Warren
Buffett, made all kinds of headlines last week when he
argued to the Wall Street Journal that the
property-tax-limiting Proposition 13 should be revisited and
rejiggered. The prospect of another exodus of rich Californians had
a salutary effect on tax officials in surrounding states,
struggling to balance their own budgets, who could be heard
chanting, “Go Arnold go!”
Republicans hopefully point to Governor Gray Davis’s low poll
numbers and the loss of control that has descended on the old pol,
like a tornado taking Dorothy’s house for a spin. According to this
interpretation, the gov is being tossed about by events and wailing
against the wind to no discernible effect. The more he tries to be
relevant, the more incompetent he looks, the more comfortable
voters get with booting him. Sacramento Bee columnist
Daniel Weintraub, whose coverage of the recall effort has been
unrivaled, now thinks it “possible” that Davis will resign to avoid
a 70 to 30
drubbing come October 7.
Anything’s possible but I doubt it and, to be fair, so does
Weintraub: We’ve now reached the dreaded
Bengal Tiger phase of the election. The Democrat dominated
legislature convened in Sacramento on Monday with one and only one
goal in mind: Keep our party in power.
For the next four weeks, they will try to do this through a
combination of payoffs to liberal constituencies, feel good
legislation, and bills aimed at splitting the Republicans down the
middle. And it’s likely to work.
In addition to defending the
absurdly lavish pensions system that Davis signed into law in
1999 — where some state workers get to retire on 90 percent of
their previous pay — Gray and company have a whole bag of
treats to hand out. Start with drivers licenses, with de
facto voting rights, for illegal immigrants. Add in a gay
partners bill that is almost Vermontean in scope. Just for kicks,
toss in
kid gloves treatment of Indian casinos and a possible bill that
could give tribes the ability to hobble developments within five
miles of anything defined as traditional burial grounds. Democrats
in the legislature are playing with the idea of cutting the car tax
back to its
previous level, and paying for it by raising taxes on the rich
and smokers (e.g., the poor). As a tax swap, this would get around
the two-thirds supermajority requirement for tax hikes, and rob
members of the opposition of the ability to vote the bill down.
Taxes, immigration, gay rights, special treatment for the tribes
and public sector unions: These are issues that Republicans should
own, but the dynamics of the race will make that very difficult.
Schwarzenegger has already endorsed gay rights. Is he now going to
oppose the partnership bill because it’s too costly? His advisers
are sending mixed messages on taxes, for good reason: Mismanagement
of the energy crisis left the state struggling under a $30 plus
billion deficit, and nobody — except maybe Tom McClintock — has any idea
how to escape this fiscal trap. Illegal immigration could be a
winning issue but it’s one that scares the hell out of
Republicans.
Also, there are four serious elephants in the race and none of
them is going to make headlines by agreeing with the others. The
electoral din will more than validate snobbish criticism that this
contest is, yes, a three-ring
circus, with lions and
marching band.
Even if voters do narrowly vote to bounce Davis, the anti-recall
sentiment should be enough to install Lieutenant Governor Cruz
Bustamante behind the governor’s desk. Though it was roundly mocked
at the outset, the “No on recall, yes on
Bustamante” slogan was pretty shrewd. In a divided field,
Bustamante only needs a plurality to win. By turning himself into
the anti-recall candidate, as well as the sole standard
bearer for his party — should Davis flounder, of course — the
unimpressive pol has changed the calculus of the whole race. The
fact that Bustamante is quite a ways to the left of Davis should
cause some conservative voters to change their mind about recall
altogether. Given Bustamante’s past as a Chicano
activist, and Davis’s usual
demeanor, I suppose we should chalk up another victory for the
brown shirt-stuffed shirt coalition.
