Increasingly, the conventional wisdom among the press is that
President Bush’s re-election prospects are in trouble.
After what can only be described as a terrible summer (thus far)
for the Bush administration, CNN crowed that “in the latest
TIME/CNN poll, Bush’s job approval rating has dropped to 55%, where
it stood before 9/11.” Dan Balz of the Washington Post
remarked that Bush’s optimism “belied the challenges that have
confronted his administration in the past month and the political
toll they have begun to take on his presidency.” Bill O’Reilly
jumped on the bandwagon, warning that “just 48 percent would vote
for Mr. Bush today, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll.” This
led the New York Times to confidently editorialize that
the reasons for the Iraq invasion “look increasingly suspect,” and
on the economy “Mr. Bush mimics his father’s out-of-touch
performance of 1992.”
Undoubtedly June and July were not kind to the Bushies. From
Uraniumgate, to soldiers dying in Iraq, to a mangled prescription
drug benefit for Medicare, to revised deficit numbers, the summer
would have been a total loss were Uday and Qusay not now
fertilizing daffodils, or whatever they grow in the Iraqi desert.
Surely the Bush administration bears some of the blame: In the
Weekly Standard, Fred Barnes makes a pretty persuasive
case that the administration bungled the Unraniumgate matter, and
it also appears that the administration prepared for the wrong
problems in a post-war Iraq. Further, Bush’s signaling that he
would sign any Medicare drug bill only encouraged the Congressional
big-spenders to dig in their heels.
This has caused the Democrats to smell blood in the water.
Everyone from Bob Graham to Joe Biden has piled on, and Howard Dean
has ratcheted up his anti-Bush rhetoric to rising approval among
the party faithful. It looks so good that some are even speculating
that Al Gore may enter the race. Meanwhile, Republicans are getting
nervous. According to Ron Fourier of the Associated Press, “For the
first time since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks,
rank-and-file Republicans say they are worried about President
Bush’s re-election chances based on the feeble economy, the rising
death toll in Iraq and questions about his credibility.”
Here’s some advice: Democrats, get your nostrils checked.
Republicans, take a chill pill. As for the press, well, who knows
what would help them? The fact of the matter is that those pressing
the Bush-is-in-trouble line are hyping a minor drop in the polls,
ignoring good news, and have no vision of the not-too-distant
future.
First off, the poll O’Reilly referred to, which has Bush beating
a generic Democrat 48-40%, is largely meaningless. In such polls
respondents often project their hopes and desires for an ideal
candidate onto the generic candidate. What matters is how Bush
matches up against actual candidates. Among all the
routinely mentioned candidates, he fares worst against Hillary
Clinton, and he still beats her 50-41%. Howard Dean? Bush’s worst
showing against him is 53-38%.
While Bush’s job approval ratings have dropped lately, most
polls still show an approval rating in the mid to high 50s. What’s
more instructive is to compare Bush’s ratings among the polls
before and after the run of bad news. Of the seven polls tracked on
Polling Report, Bush had an average approval rating in late May and
early June of 62%; by late July it was 56%. In other words, after
nearly two months of non-stop bad press, the approval ratings
dropped by only 6 points. Most politicians probably wish their
approval ratings would drop so far after such lousy media
coverage.
Lost in the din are various snippets of good news. First, the
economy appears poised for a strong recovery. Second quarter GDP
growth was better than expected, and many companies are reporting
much better than expected profits. The jobs picture is still dark,
but employment is always a lagging indicator. And if companies
continue to post profits, they will start hiring sooner rather than
later. Also lost in the din is that coalition soldiers are
conducting very successful operations against the Ba’athists
running a guerrilla war in Iraq. As these continue, the Iraqi
situation will improve and our soldiers will be safer. Eventually,
the public will notice.
Finally, two major developments have a better than even chance
of occurring before the year is out: the capture of Saddam Hussein
and the discovery of evidence of weapons of mass destruction. If
the death of Uday and Qusay was big news, the taking down of Saddam
will be enormous, giving President Bush a big boost in the polls.
Democrats should be worried, for our troops are closing in. On the
WMD front, David Kay, who is heading the search, recently said that
“solid evidence is being produced,” on Hussein’s weapons program.
From the beginning Democrats jumped the gun on the inability to
find WMDs in Iraq. Hussein and his stooges had 10 years of practice
on hiding WMDs; it was unreasonable to expect that our forces would
discover them right away. As the search unfolds, we will likely
discover evidence of WMDs. When we do, not only will Bush get a big
boost in the polls, his Democratic and liberal critics will look
foolish.
Both the Democrats’ glee and the Republicans’ nervousness are
premature. After two months of bad news a clear majority of
Americans still approves of the job our President is doing. Worse
for the Democrats, the worst for Bush is likely past.
