Edwards has his failings, but fundraising isn't one of them, and for all of his rookie mistakes, he remains viable in many polls. He runs a distant fourth (in a virtual dead heat with Dick Gephardt), for example, in New Hampshire polls that show him trailing only favored regional sons Sens. John Kerry, Joe Lieberman and Howie Dean. Not bad for a newcomer.
But Graham has to be looking at how the South will be in play for Democrats, at all of the potential fundraising he could do in his home state, and how the press is already playing up his foreign policy and intelligence know-how, and be thinking he could make a big dent in the plans of some of the other Democratic presidential hopefuls.
The best evidence he got recently that he might be able to make a serious run was a fundraising swing Kerry made through Florida, in which he attempted to draw off a number of old-line Clinton and Gore donors looking beyond Lieberman for a place to put their political dollars. While Kerry had a couple of successful fundraisers, the bigger message he got from bigtime donors and fundraisers was that before they could commit to him, they had to wait to see what Graham was going to do.
"If there were another Southerner in the race with some real experience and name recognition nationally perhaps Graham doesn't think about it," says a DNC fundraiser. "But there's only Edwards, and Graham beats Edwards on just about everything but looks. Graham might not play well in New Hampshire or Iowa, but he plays well in a lot of states where the other guys don't. He could make things more interesting than they already are."
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