THE UNRECONCILED
The White House in the coming weeks plans to heavily lobby Nebraska
Sen. Ben Nelson and Georgia Sen. Zell
Miller in hopes of luring them over to fully supporting
the Bush economic stimulus package. Hopeful of using a legislative
technique that would require only 51 votes to pass the tax cut
plan, the White House knows that it is at least four votes short.
That’s because Republicans John McCain,
Lincoln Chafee, Olympia Snowe and
Susan Collins have already announced at least
initial opposition to the Bush plan.
The White House has already begun lobbying Louisiana Sen.
John Breaux, who while receptive to the
discussions has made it clear the White House would have to go a
long way in compromising to get his vote.
If the White House hopes to successfully get the bulk of its
stimulus package through the Senate, use of the reconciliation
parliamentary technique would appear to be its only alternative.
But according to several White House legislative lobbyists who work
Capitol Hill, the administration is ready to negotiate on the
Senate side and believes that it may have to cut its dividend tax
cut in half.
DASCHLE CAVES
South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle sure whipsawed his
wife’s role in his decision not to run for the presidency.
Linda Daschle, a well-known Washington lobbyist,
was thought by many Daschle insiders to be opposed to a run by her
husband. But just two weeks ago, the current Senate minority leader
was telling friends and donors that his wife was supportive of a
run.
In announcing his decision on Tuesday in Washington, Daschle
again invoked Linda’s name, saying that after speaking with her in
the past few days he had decided not to run, that his passion
remained in the Senate.
Daschle was thought to be set to run. He’d brought former
Clinton
White House chief of staff John Podesta into his
inner circle to help advise him on national political issues, and
seemed to be gearing up a grass roots organization in Iowa and New
Hampshire.
But according to a Democratic Senate leadership staffer, several
events and meetings in the past few days seemed to pull Daschle
back from jumping into the race: “He wanted to serve as minority
leader for at least part of this congressional session, but members
of his caucus made it clear to him in meetings that they couldn’t
afford a part-time leader, not now with this president and just
after losing the majority,” says the staffer.
With no clear national leader, Democrats in both the Senate and
inside the Democratic National Committee expect Daschle to be a key
fundraiser for the party, as well as a recruiter of potential
Senate candidates in 2004 now that untested Sen. Jon
Corzine is running the Democratic Senatorial Campaign
Committee.
Daschle most likely would have served as minority leader for
eight to ten months, then stepped aside in fall 2003. But
Democratic caucus members indicated that that plan was
unacceptable, when there were at least two other Senators —
Nevada’s Harry Reid and Connecticut’s
Chris Dodd — clamoring to take on the leadership
mantle right away.
“To walk away mid-term would have created all kinds of
problems,” says another Democratic leadership staffer. “Over the
next year, you’d be seeing Daschle at events and fundraisers and
wondering, ‘Is he doing this for the party, or for himself?’ Then
there is time. You know he’d be spending more time on the road, and
not on Capitol Hill strategizing. And then you walk away and create
this fight for the job. It just doesn’t work.”
Daschle — legitimately — was also concerned about how four to
five Democratic Senators could coexist on the floor of the Senate
while also running for president. “You’ve already got Kerry,
Edwards, Lieberman, maybe Graham preening for the cameras. I think
Senator Daschle really believes we can do something up here if we
have a strong focused caucus. With him running too, he knew we
weren’t going to be at our strongest,” says a staffer on the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Daschle did stay on because of the
size of the fight he faced. Depending on what happens with
Republican popularity in the coming months, he himself may face a
stiff challenge in South Dakota in 2004 from former Rep.
John Thune. And Democrats are extremely concerned
about losing more seats in the Senate next election cycle. Already,
they are anticipating stiff competition from Republicans in New
York, where Chuck Schumer may be forced to face
GOP God Rudy Giuliani, South Carolina, where
Fritz Hollings may retire, and in Washington state
and California. The White House has already begun vetting possible
candidates in all those states. “It’s going to be an extremely
tough two years, and I think Daschle knew that. It had to affect
his thinking,” says the DSCC staffer.
Perhaps also playing into this thinking was the increasing
realization that he probably couldn’t win in 2004. Like several
other candidates, Daschle would be counting on a good showing in
the Iowa caucus to move his campaign forward into the big primary
season. But in the past several days, Rep. Dick
Gephardt, the former Democratic House leader, made several
impressive moves to solidify his standing as the frontrunner in
Iowa. First he rolled out union support in the state that made it
clear to the competition that organized labor was again leaning
toward the man it supported and who won the caucus in 1988.
Then on Monday, Gephardt quietly announced that he had retained
political consultant John Lapp to manage his Iowa
race this time around. Lapp is another Democratic hot commodity,
having engineered the successful gubernatorial race of incoming
Gov. Tom Vilsack. While it wasn’t clear that
Daschle was pursuing Lapp for his own team, both John
Kerry and John Edwards were heavily
courting the 30-something consultant.
“The thinking was that Iowa was Daschle’s best chance at really
making a splash and gaining some momentum,” says the DSCC staffer.
“Part of his thinking may have been that he’s lost out on some good
talent in the one state he seemed in a position to do well in right
away. Gephardt’s moves may have helped make his decision for
him.”
