IOWA AL
So a week after Democrats complain about Al Gore’s
seeming unwillingness or inability to get excited about campaigning
for 2002 congressional candidates, Gore decides that Iowa in
October might not be a bad place to vacation.
A Democratic caucus source reports that Gore has committed to
spending several days in the Midwest campaigning for House
candidates. But as we reported earlier this month, he’s limiting
his appearances and seems focused on helping friends, rather than
the party as a whole.
Much of Gore’s quality time in the first caucus state of the
2004 presidential campaign will be spent on the hustings for
John Norris, whose wife worked for Gore’s
presidential run in 2000. He’ll also make brief appearances for
several more candidates around the state.
Why Iowa? Now? Perhaps it’s because other potential presidential
candidates have been spending lots of time and money there. Despite
the perception that Rep. Dick Gephardt, given his
Midwestern roots, should have the caucus in the bag, everyone from
Sen. John Edwards to Sen. Tom
Daschle to Vermont Gov. Howard Dean has
been traveling the backroads of the state for months. And plunking
down lots of cash.
Daschle alone has donated close to $30,000 of his own PAC’s
money to Iowa Democrats and the party. Gephardt, too, has been
campaigning heavily in the state, and Edwards paid the Iowa
Democratic Party more than he had to for its mailing list. Dean has
spent so much time there that rumor has it Vermont can no longer be
considered his legal residence.
“He’s fallen way behind just about everyone here,” says an Iowa
Democratic Party official of Gore. “If a caucus were held today,
he’d probably still finish in the top three, but only because of
name recognition. There is no well of affection for him as a
candidate. By 2004, if others keep doing what they are doing, Gore
might be surprised at how badly he has slipped.”
EMPTY CHEERS
On Friday, Senate Republican Leader Trent Lott
held a party fundraising lunch in which he promised that the GOP
would retake the majority. In tow, according to a Senate source,
Lott brought along a pollster (who shall go unnamed) who backed up
Lott’s predictions. One problem: despite several weeks of positive
news, many Republicans inside party headquarters and in the Senate
campaign committee remain uncertain that they can win enough seats
for a clear majority. This, because of remarkably close races in
Texas and New Hampshire, both seats Republicans expect to hold, but
which remain too close for comfort.
And then there is Colorado, where Republican Wayne
Allard is said to be struggling mightily. “That’s one
state we weren’t expecting would be trouble, and it is,” says a GOP
strategist. “If Allard loses in Colorado, and we don’t pick up a
Democrat seat somewhere along the line, then we’re back to where we
started: Democratic control.”
Those who are less excitable than Lott say they are becoming
increasingly annoyed by the former University of Mississippi
cheerleader’s cheerleading. “He shouldn’t be pushing this too hard.
He won’t look good if his guarantees don’t hold up,” says a U.S.
senator.
DOOM DATES
Two dates that may play out for the November elections: October 11,
when retail sales figure for September are scheduled to be
released, and October 21, when the index of leading economic
indicators for September is made public. These, along with
unemployment figures, are stats the White House is hoping will
reveal at the least a stable economy leading into a period when
voters most likely will be just beginning to seriously look at
races in which they will pull the lever.
“The numbers don’t have to be great to create the impression
that things are on the uptick,” says a Commerce Department source.
“We just need them to be solid.” You figure out what that
means.
