TAKING NOTHING FOR GRANITE
Despite poll numbers in New Hampshire — in particular the Research
2000 poll for the Concord Monitor — that show Rep.
John Sununu in a dead heat with Sen. Bob
Smith for the Republican Senate nomination, both camps
have internal polling indicating the Sununu has a stronger lead
than the public polls are showing.
“Everyone, even the voters, are playing this one close to the
vest,” says a pollster for Sununu. “And while the poll numbers have
tightened a bit in the past six weeks, we’re confident that John
pulls out of a five or six point win here. We think the voters will
realize that if the Republicans are to have a shot at controlling
the Senate, Smith can’t be the candidate.”
That’s why the Sununu camp is making so much hay about the polls
that show Smith losing in the general election to Democrat
Jeanne Shaheen, while a Sununu-Shaheen faceoff
leads to a Sununu win.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Shaheen is doing for Smith what
Gray Davis did for Bill Simon out
in California,” says a Senate Republican Policy Committee staffer.
(Davis is said to have spent heavily on anti-Dick
Riordan advertising, allowing Simon to win the Republican
nomination for governor.) “Her people are doing everything they can
to help Smith pull this thing out. They’re desperate for a Smith
win.”
RENO ON THE ROCKS
And then there is Florida, where Janet Reno’s
campaign appears to sputtering badly. In fact, according to a
pollster doing work for the Democratic National Committee in
Washington, Reno’s own internal polls show her trailing rookie
candidate and Tampa lawyer Bill McBride by two to
three percentage points.
This perhaps isn’t as stunning a turn of events as one might
think. But consider that six weeks ago, Reno led McBride in some
polls by as much as 30 points. But in the last month, McBride has
ponied up dough for a major ad blitz, and a number of local
newspapers handed out endorsements for him. “The killer there was
the Miami Herald backing him instead of Reno,” says the
DNC pollster. “That paper over the years invested a lot in her,
touted her as attorney general and pushed her as a potential
candidate to Jeb Bush. To turn around and back her
opponent is just devastating.”
What has to be troubling Republicans is that the big momentum
McBride is bringing into the primary election could translate into
a decent run against Bush in the fall campaign. In June, DNC
chairman Terry McAuliffe had all but written off
Florida as a state in play for the party. “Now maybe he reconsiders
that,” says the DNC staffer. “In fact, he might just have the
national party pour some money in there just to make life
interesting for Bush.”
“Bush has had a tough summer and still has a great double digit
lead,” says a Florida GOP staffer. “And we haven’t been ignoring
McBride. We haven’t taken anything for granted, but Bush is going
to be just fine running this fall. We have to be confident.”
Most likely, Bush enters the race for November with a 15 to 17
point lead against McBride. Against, Reno, should she get her
senior base energized in time to pull this election out of the
raging fire seemingly consuming it, Bush’s lead over her could
double what it is against McBride.
