Arafat should be called Yassir the Dependable for his nearly
unbroken forty-year record of breaking — or ignoring — any
promise he makes which might, if carried out, contribute to peace.
For example, a little over a week ago, he was promising to reform
his corrupt Palestinian Authority and hold elections for the
legislature and his position as leader.
Voilà! He put his words into action over this last
weekend. Or did he? Arafat has always made Big Announcements when
he felt the pressure in the international boiler was rising to a
dangerous level. This past weekend Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak
visited President Bush at Camp David and Israeli Prime Minister
Ariel Sharon was about to arrive for a powwow at the White
House.
In the past, Arafat’s Big Announcement often has taken the form
of denouncing (in English) suicide bombings and promising to arrest
terrorists (who were booked, then let go). This time the
announcement was so big it deserved a trumpet fanfare: Arafat
reshuffled his cabinet and reduced it in size; his information
minister told the press elections would be held next January; and
Arafat said he would reduce his security units from nine to
six.
There is a Catch-22 to each of these. Although he reduced the
cabinet from 31 to 21 ministers, he carefully skirted the call by
critics to appoint a prime minister to coordinate and lead the work
of the ministers. As he has since the Palestine Authority was
created, in the wake of the Oslo Accords, Arafat holds the reins
tightly.
As for the promise to hold municipal elections this fall and
parliamentary and leadership elections next January, the news
media, in reporting this, seem to have forgotten that about 10 days
ago Arafat said elections would be held only after all Israeli
forces are withdrawn from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This
will not happen as long as Palestinian terrorists blow themselves
up in Israeli markets, restaurants and buses. The bombings show no
sign of stopping, so Arafat has created for himself a handy excuse
for laying aside his election promise.
In his Big Announcement, Arafat divested himself of the interior
minister’s portfolio (which he has held for eight years) and named
a new minister who will be, as his spokesman put it, “responsible
for all the security issues inside the Palestinian territories (and
to) supervise all the security establishments.” Who is this new
security czar? One of Arafat’s guerrilla “generals,” one Abdel
Razak Yehiyeh, a 73-year-old cipher who is widely seen as a cat’s
paw for Arafat. Conspicuously avoided was the chief of security in
Gaza, well-regarded internationally as a man who could effectively
reform the security operation.
Why, by the way, does Arafat need six security agencies? His
jurisdiction is geographically small and compact. Logic would
dictate three at most: a Secret Service-type detail to protect
leaders; a standard police force for civilian police work; and a
small military defense group. The last two functions might be
combined. The reason Arafat wants so many is to prevent any one
from becoming large enough that it might be able to turn him
out.
Arafat hopes his Big Announcement will distract international
attention so that he can avoid any settlement which would eliminate
options making it possible to one day drive the Israelis into the
sea (the “right” of Palestinian “refugees” to return to Israeli is
one such). Without such options Arafat would have to persuade the
more radical elements among the Palestinians to abandon their hope
of destroying Israel. And, he would have to lead a fledgling state,
building its infrastructure. He has neither the inclination nor
experience to do either. The only thing he knows well is stirring
up conflict.
It is time for the Europeans and the Saudis (if they are serious
about settling the matter — and they may be) to lean heavily on
Arafat to name a prime minister, giving him the authority to run
things, then stand aside to become a father figure to his people.
If they do not, Arafat will fall into his dependable pattern of not
giving any real authority to anyone else and always finding an
excuse to stall reforms and efforts to bring peace.
