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The Current Crisis

(Page 2 of 2)

Other than these two, the ranks of governors are pretty thin. The Pride of Yazoo City, Haley Barbour, has had his fill of Washington, which is why he's running for governor of Mississippi. Why would he want to come back to Yankee territory? Oklahoma's Frank Keating is by all accounts an impressive guy, but he couldn't get his wife elected to Congress at home, which augurs poorly for his chances. Plus, he's headed to Washington when his term ends to run a big-time trade association. He probably wouldn't want the pay cut.

The name Mitt Romney is on the lips of those people who think he can lead us to the promised land. But that's what they said in 1994, and he ended up running a disastrous race against a vulnerable Ted Kennedy. I don't expect him to win the Massachusetts governor's race in November, despite the fact the GOP field was cleared for him to come back as the conquering Olympic hero from Utah.

Undoubtedly there will be some running as the "moderate" Republican candidate. They will tout themselves as the only ones capable of winning in the fall, the elections of 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2000 nothwithstanding. Whereas Giuliani and Pataki and Ridge are savvy moderates who will run as conservatives, expect Christie Whitman to make the case for a kinder, gentler Republican candidate. Expect her also to disappear without a trace.

One woman who might make waves, and history, would be Condoleezza Rice. She's a possible candidate in 2008 if, as so many hope, Dick Cheney bows out in 2004 and Bush picks her to run with him. Condi is a popular choice in the blogger community, particularly with Instapundit's Glenn Reynolds. Glenn's right about a lot of things, so this may have legs.

And then there's former Ohio Rep. John Kasich. He ran for the nomination in 2000, though "ran" might be overstating the case. He's pulling in some serious Wall Street cash these days, but is telling friends this private sector stop is a brief respite. So will he return to Ohio and run for something statewide to set up another run? Doubtful. He doesn't see the point. He wants to be president, not governor. He's not going to be either.

But there is one Ohio congressman to keep an eye on, and that's Rob Portman of Cincinnati. There's a lot of buzz surrounding him in Washington these days. He's a genuinely impressive and accomplished legislator, and all he needs is a better springboard than the House. Ohio currently has two GOP senators and a GOP governor, but 2008 is a long time away, and anything can happen between now and then.

Anything can happen, which is why this field will surely change. Some of those listed will come to their sense and forego the pain, humiliation, and expense of making a losing bid. Others not mentioned will indulge their egos and take the plunge (Bob Smith, anyone?). Even Steve Forbes hasn't run out of cash yet. Don't be surprised to see him try to buy up Iowa once again.

It's hard to imagine campaigning so far out from an election, but with the Pataki appearance in the Granite State this week we can expect to see everyone rushing into the pool. What that means for how the race is run over the next few years is unclear. It's possible the presidential hopefuls will consult the actuarial tables and skip appearances at senior citizens' centers. One can even imagine them trolling the high schools and junior high schools for the votes of those who will be of age in 2008. Anything for an edge in this age we live in.

But enough about 2008. What about 2012?

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