1. Best signals source says that Tehran chief brain and strategist Rafsanjani is now in Damascus for a round of meetings with the terror camps, from the al-Assads to Nasrallah of the Hizb to the usual suspects of PFLPGC, Hamas, IJ, Al Aqsa: the topic is agreed: the struggle to liberate the Golan Heights, the West Bank, the whole of Palestine, is the same struggle as to liberate Iraq. Iran means to crush Israel and retake Palestine just as if this was the end of the second crusade.
2. The Damascus meetings turn on what is to be done to prep for the pre-empt that the Iranians aim to launch before October showdown with the UNSC. The collective attack on Israel will soften the resistance to the general assault in the Gulf region on the oilfields.
3. Rafsanjani next heads to Kuwait to warn the Sunni princes of oil that they either turn the Americans out of their back acres or they will burn with the Americans. This same message will be delivered to Bahrain and the UAE. Burn later or surrender now.
4. The Tehran regime will not wait for the expected American punch under cover of the UNSC. The IRGC will pre-empt, forcing an escalating scale of strike/counter-strike.
5. Iran possesses several nuclear warheads purchased from Central Asia and the Black Sea Fleet in the 20th century. It also has up to 3 hand made plutonium bombs acquired from the North Koreans. The Chinese and Russians both know that Iran has these weapons and will use them at the point the escalation rounds become unbearable in Tehran. The Chinese especially understand, because Bejing is proliferator in chief. Those cascades in Iran are built with Pakistani, Iraqi, North Korean, Chinese technicians. The Iranians are working with the North Koreans because the warheads they aim to produce must fit on the North Korean missiles and use the North Korean warheads.
6. The question unanswered is: Does the US State Department asknowledge that Iran is a nuclear weapon power with the capability of launching warheads on the command of the National Comand Center (Ayatollah K)?
7. My Israeli signals source estimates two rounds of consultations at the UNSC through the summer months, heading to a final series of resolutions for sanctions in October. Israel is not surprised by anything so far. Israel does not know what the US president will do as the confrontation deepens into tactical options.
8. Best signals source indicates that Iran will treat any UNSC sanction as an act of war and will escalate the attacks on Israel and the US interests in the Gulf . Iran will use the oil weapon like turns of the screw. An open source suggests a possibility that the Sauds believe China will pay $90/barrel as a floor. The oil weapon will threaten the US economy first and foremost and will stagger the Bush GOP chance to retain command of Congress. Cynical question: do the Dem wannabees who are hawking the Iran-not-nuke-for-ten-years yarn count on the Bush team losing to Tehran in a catastrophe, and does this mean that the Dems will inherit a hobbled giant for a generation?
9. The UN is on a glide path to Chapter 7, Article 42. No one state can turn it off. Point of no return already passed. The Tehran regime welcomes the showdown. The Tehran regime may be manipulating the showdown.
10. Best signal identifies shooting by November election, since the Tehran regime believes thet the Bush Admninistration cannot handle a foreign policy crisis in an election year.
11. In the event of airland battle, the winter months will bog down troop movements and will make airstrikes sloppy in poor weather. Tehran believes the UN will bargain for a ceasefire that will leave Tehran triumphant in the region and the US in retreat from Iraq.
12. Endgame is acceptable up to the unknowable: Will the US national security apparatus resupply the beleaguered region with naval forces that the Iranians will strike with a nuke? What will the US response be to such a calamity?
13. This is a war warning, part 4.