Recent articles surrounding the Employee Free Choice Act have focused on it’s likelyhood of passing the Senate. A statement by the AFL-CIO legislative director Bill Sammuel to reporters claims that the unions think they have the votes needed to pass card check. However, I disagree.
Now, I am assuming everyone knows what “card check” and the Employee Free Choice Act (EFCA) is. If not, click here.
Ok, now that you are informed, let’s walk through the numbers.
It is expected that EFCA will be introduced in the House and Senate on Monday. Ok. We all knew that it was going to come at some point; no reason to freak out. Everyone needs to remember that introduction is just that, an introduction. It is not a vote, or a debate, or a huge amendment chance or loss – it is just an introduction that we all knew was coming.
With that being said, let’s go through the votes. Based on last years votes, we can assume that all the R’s, with the questionable excpetion of Sen. Specter, will oppose cloture. Keep that in mind. That’s 39 votes against cloture assuming Specter votes like he did last year.
Now let’s examine the D’s in the Senate. Kennedy? Who knows, as of now, he is not even in D.C. Burris? Where will he be when this comes to a vote? And Minnesota? Franken will probably get in, but he isn’t in yet. Even counting the unknowns (Burris and Kennedy), let’s assume they are present and healthy and will vote yes on cloture. That only makes 58 (assuming all the other D’s support cloture). Even if Specter goes the way he did last year, that is still only 59. Where do you get 60?
The D’s need Franken before they will even push a vote on this. So, my prediction, look for the Franken confirmation date to determine when the Senate EFCA vote will be. (Hint: it will be the day after they get Franken).
This all assumes Pryor, Lincoln, and Nelson support Cloture…which is also questionable.
Additionally, a recent study shows that 600,000 jobs could be lost as a result of passing EFCA.
And, new polling indicates that 74% of rank-and-file union workers oppose EFCA.
Yet Obama thinks this is good for the economy?
The Alliance for Worker Freedom issued this press release in response to the union assertions that they have enough votes. However, on mere mention of the bill being introduced on Monday, the markets have already begun to fall. What does the Obama-Pelosi-Reid Troika think will happen once it gets introduced?