Official Washington buzzes with the prediction Karl Rove will be indicted this week. Now is a good time to buck the buzz and predict he will not.
Just from reading the verbose news reports one can gather that the chances of an indictment for Rove are minimal. For one, though the press reports that lawyers (unnamed) say he has been told he is in “serious” danger, this loose language is insufficient to conclude indictment is near. I have yet to see it reported that Rove has been notified that he is a “target” of an investigation by the prosecutor, which according to the Justice Department guidelines is mandatory if he were in “serious” danger. Nor does it appear that he has even been notified that he falls into that far lesser category, namely, “subject” of an investigation. For another thing, the only problem with Rove’s grand jury testimony that we are aware of is that during one of his grand jury appearances he neglected to mention a meeting with a reporter. It is unlikely that this omission could constitute grounds for an indictment. Innocent failure to recall when not asked a specific question is not a crime. When Rove was asked specifically about the meeting he apparently acknowledged it.
Thus my guess is Rove goes free. Karl, take the week off and clean up your garage or head for the beach.